nba BLOG

JOSH'S BETS

Cam Spencer O 8.5 AST (+108 DK)

Kyle Filipowski O 9.5 REB (+102 FD)

Jaylen Wells U 23.5 PRA (-108 FD)

Jared McCain O 11.5 PTS (-111 FD)

McCain 15+ PTS (+187 FD | .75u)

Michael Porter Jr U 22.5 PTS (-114 FD)

Jalen Johnson O 42.5 PRA (-108 FD)

Dyson Daniels U 23.5 PRA (-118 FD

WRITE UPS

Cam Spencer

The dashboard has him at 8.8 in 29 minutes and the only thing that’s slightly scaring me from pulling the trigger is the fact that MEM has had really weird minute distributions leading up to the break. But Ty Jerome and SPJ are both out so it’s really Cam Spencer and maybe Walter Clayton (currently Questionable) running the show. UTA allows most ast in the league.

Kyle Filipowski

Got this in before Lauri was downgraded to doubtful and now I love it even more. He'll be playing the bulk of center minutes vs a MEM team that doesn't have a center and has been a bottom 5 rebounding team for a month now.

Jaylen Wells

In what world does this make sense? He’s gone over this number 5 times out of 52 games this season and even without Ja and everyone else missing tonight, he’s gone over 3 times. UTA can be as bad as they want on defense, he doesn’t take enough shots to get there with any consistency.

Jalen Johnson

This is just a wagon to which the market isn't giving true credence and we can still get value on 42.5 pra. All he's done in his last 10 is avg 46.2 pra… MIA is good on defense but plays so fast they allow ton more stats than their defensive rating (8th) indicates they should.

Dyson Daniels

I'm really eyeing the under for his ast and could be easily convinced to add the Pts and/or Rebs. The Rebs scare me the most considering how fast the Heat play and how many rebs they allow per game as a result. That said, he should be on Herro or Powell who both have high usage and play far from the basket, putting him outta position to get boards.

MPJ / McCain

Classic blowout spot for OKC which means fade guys like MPJ + Caruso and back the end of the benches, which at this point is McCain for OKC. The normal guys are at the front of the bench/starting these days: Wiggins, Joe, Kenrich Williams - these are the key players for OKC right now with SGA, J Dub, Ajay Mitchell all still OUT. If any books give us something like Jared McCain Leading Scorer, I’d hit that for a juicy price like 50-1 or better. I’m going to guess MPJ doesn’t even play for BKN, but if he is IN, I’d say he sees fewer than 30 minutes like he did when CLE crushed them on Thursday.