NFL Sunday Week 7 Recap
Sunday Week 7 Record: 5-5, +0.1u
NFL 2025 YTD: 54-59, +6.3u
✅ Evan Engram O 25.5 Rec Yds (-114 FD)
✅ Engram 40+ Rec Yds (+235 FD | .5u)
❌ Tre Tucker O 43.5 Rec yds (-115 MGM)
❌ Breece Hall O 69.5 Rush Yds (+109 DK)
❌ Mason Taylor O 37.5 Rec Yds (-118 MGM)
❌ Jahan Dotson O 10.5 Rec Yds (-115 MGM)
❌ Cam Ward O 2.5 Rush Att (-105 MGM)
✅ Tyjae Spears O 12.5 Rec Yds (-114 FD)
✅ Van Jefferson O 22.5 Rec Yds (-114 FD)
✅ Van Jefferson 40+ Rec Yds (+250 FD | .5u)
Write Ups For Week 7
Evan Engram O 25.5 Rec Yds (-114 FD)
Playable to 30.5 Rec yds
A summary of last week's Evan Engram write up: "With 6+ targets in 2 straight weeks, he's a nice candidate for an easy 4-30 line." It felt good to see him hit that line at the half, ending the full game with a 5-42 line. He also hit his 3rd straight game with 6+ targets, so we're going back to the well after this line only went up 3 yards. Throw in the revenge narrative vs the NYG and I like him to hit the ladder to 40+ again.
Tre Tucker O 43.5 Rec yds (-115 MGM)
Playable to 49.5 Rec Yds
I love Tre Tucker this week after his receiving prop still hasn't risen much after another standout week last game with 5 receptions for 70 yards. He's been on the field for 90%+ of the snaps for every game but one (he saw 88% that week) and ran 92%+ of the routes every game as well. So basically, he's a staple WR2 in this offense, now-turned WR1 due to a combination of things: Brock Bowers is OUT so the Raiders are running way more 3-WR sets, and now Jakobi Meyers' usage has dropped amidst rumors that he's on the trade block. Plus, I think we can all bank on the Raiders playing from behind against the Chiefs this weekend.
Breece Hall O 69.5 Rush Yds (+109 DK)
Playable to 74.5 Rush yards
Breece has become the true workhorse of this team after Braelon Allen went down for the year. Not to mention, this team couldn't throw even if it wanted to, especially this week with Garrett Wilson almost assuredly out with an injury. SwishLand Projections like him for another 17 carries in this game after he saw 22 totes last week on a season-high snap share vs the Broncos. Now, the Jets will likely face at least a neutral game script in an equally-underwhelming opponent, the Carolina Panthers. I think 17 carries is a modest projection.
Mason Taylor O 37.5 Rec Yds (-118 MGM)
Playable to 42.5 Rec Yards
I almost bet Taylor last week but just didn't want to take an over for a Jets player against that Broncos defense. Well, this week, I'm pulling the trigger against the worst defense in the league at limiting TE receiving yards, the Carolina Panthers. Everything is lining up for another monster target game for Taylor with an easier matchup than last week in addition to Garrett Wilson's Doubtful tag. I expect this game to maintain a neutral game script as both teams are equally terrible so the Jets will inevitably have to pass.
Cam Ward O 2.5 Rush Attempts (-105 MGM)
Playable to 3.5 Rush Attempts
It sounds like the the coaching change in Tennessee will bring with it a bunch more Cam Ward rushes. Former head coach Brian Callahan and his former OC Bill Callahan (aka his dad) are both out and interim head coach Mike McCoy has already said he intends to play to Cam Ward's strengths more this week in his first week at the helm. If you've watched Cam Ward try to execute a pass play this season, you know his strengths are with his legs. Ok, that's a bit harsh considering he's looked more competent the last two weeks. Still, the Titans will likely have to throw a ton if they're trailing once again, which seems imminent considering they still hold the last spot in our Power Rankings for Week 7.
Tyjae Spears O 12.5 Rec Yds (-114 FD)
Playable to 16.5 Rec Yds
At the very least we have a split backfield situation in TEN between Spears and Tony Pollard. At the very most for our bet, Spears is the RB1A and Pollard 1B. Last week in just his second game back from injury, Spears saw 58% of the snaps compared to Pollard's 42%. Either way, he's the receiving back for a team that will have trouble moving the ball on the ground against the Patriots' 5th-rated rushing defense. As a result of the Pats' run-stuffing ways, 4 of 5 RB1s have recorded 20+ receiving yards against the Pats.
Van Jefferson O 22.5 Rec Yds (-114 FD)
We like the Titans to have to pass vs New England, both because they'll have to play from behind and they likely wouldn't be able to run the ball anyway. Van Jefferson emerged as the WR1 after Ridley went down last week (he's out again this game) and Cam Ward's surrogate deep-threat option in his place. He saw 65% of the team's air yards last week and caught 4 balls on 6 targets for 73 yards.
Jahan Dotson O 10.5 Rec Yds (-115 MGM)
For the second straight week, Jahan Dotson is the Tutu Atwell Bet of the Week. I spoke about this on my YouTube episode for TNF last week when we took Dotson for an over on the exact same 10.5 line. The "Tutu" is a bet for a receiver who sees at least 70% of the snaps, around 3 targets per game, and has an ADOT (average depth of target) around 15+ yards. These players will have a receiving yards line around 10 yards, meaning we have a 1 in 3 chance of him catching a ball to cash us. I'm going to keep taking those odds.
