Josh's NFL Bets Sunday Week 6
Sunday Week 6
Jaylen Warren O 17.5 Rec Yds (-114 FD)
Evan Engram O 22.5 Rec Yds (-114 FD)
Trevor Lawrence O 16.5 Rush Yds (-113 DK)
Bijan O 29.5 Rec Yds (-115 MGM)
Jahmyr Gibbs O 27.5 Rec Yds (-110 DK)
James Cook O 69.5 Rush Yds (-120 FD)
James Cook 100+ Rush Yds (+299 DK | .5u)
Jaylen Warren O 17.5 Rec Yds (-114 FD)
Playable to 22.5 Rec yds
SwishLand likes him for about 4 targets, 3 receptions, and 26 receiving yards this week. He's coming off 2 weeks of rest due to an injury and much-needed bye week. We don't believe the market is staying on top of his receiving yards after Kenneth Gainwell put on a show in his absence 2 weeks ago. While he may take a few carries from Warren, expect Warren to continue playing almost every third down as the much better choice for receiving.
Evan Engram O 22.5 Rec Yds (-114 FD)
Playable to 25.5 Rec yds
Don't look now, but Evan Engram has worked his way into the Denver passing game over the last few weeks. SwishLand likes him for another 32+ receiving yards this game and we're getting a nice price at 22.5. The Intel we collected told us that Sean Payton was quoted as saying he wants to use Engram in a "joker" role, as they've been lining him up in the backfield and in the slot to keep defenses off balance. With 6+ targets in 2 straight weeks, he's a nice candidate for an easy 4-30 line.
Trevor Lawrence O 16.5 Rush Yds (-113 DK)
Playable to 19.5 Rush Yds
After 4 weeks experiencing the lowest pressure % of any QB this season, Lawrence was flushed out of the pocket a ton in Week 5 vs Kansas City. The Chiefs have the 5th highest pressure % against opposing QBs and Seattle isn't far behind with the 8th highest %. SwishLand likes Lawrence to scramble roughly 5 times this game and that's good enough for me to like his yards projection up to 20.
Bijan O 29.5 Rec Yds (-115 MGM)
Playable to 34.5 Rec yds
The books have finally bumped his receiving prop line up to 30 or so after a 100+ yard day in Week 5. SwishLand projections don't seem to mind the bump, lining him at about 37 receiving yards on 5 targets. He's basically a WR at this point, averaging 5 targets per game, leading all RBs in route (84%) and YPC (15.0). While Buffalo is good at limiting RB rec yards (3rd) they're also good at limiting WR rec yards (6th) and that's a more telling stat to me when Bijan is going to be used so often in the pass game.
Jahmyr Gibbs O 27.5 Rec Yds (-110 DK)
Playable to 30.5 Rec yds
We've been waiting on Gibbs' receiving line vs KC since basically last week. We liked Montgomery overs last week as a way to give Gibbs some rest ahead of this week's more difficult tout with the Chiefs. This Chiefs defense is going to pressure Goff as much as possible and that's going to force those quick throws to Gibbs. With an expected bump in snap share this week, look for him to stay heavily involved in the passing game.
James Cook O 69.5 Rush Yds (-120 FD)
James Cook 100+ Rush Yds (+299 DK | .5u)
I love this bounce-back spot for James Cook after a rough week rushing vs the 4th-rated rush defense of the Patriots. We called that under one week after calling his 100-yard game against the Saints. Atlanta's rush defense looks ripe for a negative regression game, as they limit opposing RBs to the 5th fewest rush yards per game, despite the 6th-worst defensive rush EPA. They allow 4.6 yards per carry, good for 23rd in the league.
Cook still had 15+ attempts last game following three straight weeks of 19+ carries. I like him to get back closer to 20 than 15, thus the ladder.
