& Picks
The same edge-finding framework that powers SwishLand NBA — built from the ground up for baseball. Pitcher strikeouts, batter props, park factors, weather, and bullpen context.
Every Prop. Every Edge.
Modeled From Scratch.
The MLB Intel Dashboard projects pitcher strikeouts, batter hits, home runs, and total bases — layered with park factors, weather, and bullpen context. Same edge-finding framework as SwishLand, built for baseball.
We don't scrape consensus projections. Every number is generated by our own models, stress-tested against closing lines, and updated daily.
Six modeling layers working together to surface real edges — not gut picks.
Pitcher K Projections
Strikeout models built on pitch mix, swinging strike rate, opponent K%, and recent workload. Fair value on every starter, every slate.
Batter Prop Modeling
Hits, home runs, and total bases projected per batter — weighted by platoon splits, pitcher handedness, and lineup position.
Park Factor Engine
Every ballpark affects hitting differently. Our park factor layer adjusts projections for Coors Field fly balls and Oracle Park suppressors alike.
Weather Integration
Wind speed, direction, humidity, and temperature all move totals and prop lines. We pull live weather data and bake it into every projection.
Bullpen Role Detection
Track closer usage, setup man workload, and bullpen fatigue. Know when a team's late-inning arms are depleted before the books adjust.
Edge Projections
Every prop gets a fair-value price. Compare it to the sportsbook line and see instantly whether you're getting a cheap or expensive number.
Each projection category runs through its own pipeline — then converges into a single fair-value output per prop.
Strikeouts
Pitch-level strikeout modeling using swinging strike rate, chase rate, opponent K%, innings projection, and pitch count estimates.
Hits
Contact-based hit projection using BABIP, hard-hit rate, spray angle vs. defensive alignment, and platoon-adjusted batting average.
Home Runs
HR probability per AB using barrel rate, exit velocity, launch angle, park dimensions, and wind/weather overlay.
Total Bases
Composite total-bases projection combining hit model, HR model, and extra-base-hit tendencies by matchup type.
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