MLB Bettors
An MLB betting ecosystem built around identifying exploitable pitcher vs batter matchups, weighting park factors, and pricing the market in real time to uncover positive EV opportunities across props, sides, and totals.
Powered by the SwishLand MLB Dashboard and a process trusted by bettors who rely on disciplined, data-driven betting every day.
Daily Bets. Proven Process.
Market-Based Pricing.
Follow Matty's daily MLB bets with full write-ups and transparent tracking throughout the season. His process focuses on identifying pitcher weaknesses versus batter tendencies, then combining those matchups with park factors to build stronger projections and uncover value across the board.
Every play is priced through the SwishLand MLB Dashboard to target positive EV opportunities only — taking advantage of weak spots in sportsbook pricing across props, sides, and totals. Daily cards are built around disciplined market analysis and long-term profitability, not chasing short-term wins.
Six modeling layers working together to surface real edges — not gut picks.
Pitcher K Projections
Strikeout models built on pitch mix, swinging strike rate, opponent K%, and recent workload. Fair value on every starter, every slate.
Batter Prop Modeling
Hits, home runs, and total bases projected per batter — weighted by platoon splits, pitcher handedness, and lineup position.
Park Factor Engine
Every ballpark affects hitting differently. Our park factor layer adjusts projections for Coors Field fly balls and Oracle Park suppressors alike.
Weather Integration
Wind speed, direction, humidity, and temperature all move totals and prop lines. We pull live weather data and bake it into every projection.
Bullpen Role Detection
Track closer usage, setup man workload, and bullpen fatigue. Know when a team's late-inning arms are depleted before the books adjust.
Edge Projections
Every prop gets a fair-value price. Compare it to the sportsbook line and see instantly whether you're getting a cheap or expensive number.
Each projection category runs through its own pipeline — then converges into a single fair-value output per prop.
Strikeouts
Pitch-level strikeout modeling using swinging strike rate, chase rate, opponent K%, innings projection, and pitch count estimates.
Hits
Contact-based hit projection using BABIP, hard-hit rate, spray angle vs. defensive alignment, and platoon-adjusted batting average.
Home Runs
HR probability per AB using barrel rate, exit velocity, launch angle, park dimensions, and wind/weather overlay.
Total Bases
Composite total-bases projection combining hit model, HR model, and extra-base-hit tendencies by matchup type.
This Season.
Start with a free trial to MLB Premium Picks. Stay free with the dashboard and Discord. Either way, you're getting an edge.