TNF Week 6 Recap

TNF Record: 2-4, -1.2u

NFL 2025 YTD: 44-45, +8.4u

❌ Daniel Bellinger O 7.5 Rec Yds (-115 BetMGM)|

❌ Bellinger 30+ (+300 FD | .5u)

✅ Cam Skattebo O 11.5 Rec Yds (-114 FD)

❌ Saquon Barkley O 14.5 Rec Yds (-118 BetMGM)

✅ Jahan Dotson 10+ Rec Yds (-112 FD)

❌ Jahan Dotson 20+ Rec Yds (+220 FD | .5u)

Daniel Bellinger O 7.5 Rec Yds (-115 BetMGM)

Playable to 11.5 Rec Yds

If all you look at is matchup data, any type of over on a TE will seem silly when you see Philly's defense ranked in the top 5 vs TEs for many key metrics. With a 7.5 yard receiving prop, however, those metrics can kick rocks. Bellinger was on the field for 70% of the snaps and saw 4 targets last week without Malik Nabers, and now Darius Slayton is out this week as well.

Philly should be in their 2-high safety look most of the game, leaving the underneath game available for Dart's dink and dunks. I expect Philly to give NYG the short crossing routes to TEs and WRs so I'm likely going to play an over on a few more Giants receivers and even the other TE Theo Johnson. But this bet gives us too much of an edge not to get it down right away. Plus, the movement we're seeing on Bellinger's lines (opened at 5.5 rec yards on BetMGM) should help keep other NYG receiving props reasonable so there's less of a rush to get to those.

Cam Skattebo O 11.5 Rec Yds (-114 FD)

Playable to 16.5 Rec Yds

Tyrone Tracy is back he's likely going to take a few carries from Skat. Still, he's going to be out there for a bigger workload than Tracy and we don't think Tracy will cut into Skat's receiving as much as his rushing. Plus, if the Giants are in a negative game script as the market is projecting with a spread greater than 7, look for the dink and dunks to go Skat's way in addition to the TEs.

Saquon Barkley O 14.5 Rec Yds (-118 BetMGM)

Playable to 19.5 Rec Yds

Everyone and they mama is on Barkely rushing vs the awful Giants' rush defense, but Saquon's receiving is still priced below 20 yards and we're going to keep taking advantage of it. We went with the yards last week as the receptions were too pricey at 2.5 for -150. This week, we're back to +100 for O 2.5 Rec, but the yards still give us the biggest edge. Swish, Nate and I all like the way he's being used downfield via wheel routes and long crossing routes across the middle out of the backfield, leading to a high ADOT and yards per reception for a RB.

Jahan Dotson

The model has Dotson at 2 targets / 1 reception / 12 receiving yards. So I really like the 10+ yards line. He has an average depth of target of 17.6 yards, though, so I also like the ladder to 20+ for 1/2 a unit. Philly is going 3 WR a ton the last 2 weeks, upping Dotson's snap share to 70%. He's also seen 3+ targets in 3 of 5 games so far. It all adds up to this being a solid ladder if he catches 1 of 2-3 targets this game. It may be sweaty, but I'm going to keep playing these types of odds all year for the longterm EV!