TNF Week 14 Recap

TNF Week 14 Record: 1-5, -3.5u

❌ Jahmyr Gibbs o76.5 Rush Yds (-114 FD)

❌ Gibbs 70+ Rush Yds / ATTD (+112 FD) .5u

✅ Gibbs Longest Reception o13.5 Yds (-130 FD) .25u

❌ Isaac TeSlaa o34.5 Rec Yds (-130 MGM)

❌ Cowboys +4.5 / CeeDee Lamb 60+ Yds (+108 DraftKings)

❌ Cowboys +3.5 / Lamb 70+ Yds (+130) .5u

Jahmyr Gibbs O 76.5 Rush Yds (-114 FanDuel)

Gibbs 70+ Rush Yds / ATTD (+112) .5u

By now you've probably heard about the Cowboys becoming the No. 1 run defense in the NFL in three games with Quinnen Williams. Let's take a step back and consider their opponents in that stretch: The Raiders, Eagles, and Chiefs (with their best lineman out). While Detroit's offensive line is hurting, they still have a better run game than all of those teams by far, and Gibbs can get outside the tackles, where Dallas isn't as strong. Gibbs has seen a huge uptick in snap counts and workload since Dan Campbell took over play-calling four weeks ago. He's in a bit of a buy-low spot after facing the Packers stingy defense.

Isaac TeSlaa o34.5 Rec Yds (-130 BetMGM)

Playable to 37.5 Rec Yds

As mentioned, the Packers are a stingy defense that allows the lowest explosive play rate in the NFL. The Cowboys are 30th in that department and still rank 23rd after their improvement since adding Williams at the deadline. TeSlaa is an explosive play waiting to happen with 16.7 yards per reception on limited work this season. He'll be thrust into a full-time role with Amon-Ra St. Brown (ankle) doubtful on a short week. The rookie played 92% of the snaps last week and Jameson Williams went off, but now Williams draws all the attention as the No. 1 option and the Lions should scheme some deep shots to TeSlaa after establishing the run.

CeeDee Lamb 60+ Rec Yds / Dallas +4.5 (+108 DraftKings)

Ladder to Lamb 70+ Rec Yds / Dallas +3.5 (+150 DK) .5u

Detroit's secondary is banged up and their pass rush has been inconsistent. Dallas could be favored in this game given their improvement defensively and how bad Jared Goff has looked against interior pressure. No Amon-Ra is a big problem for Detroit. No Terrion Arnold on defense is a problem against Lamb, who could draw the superior CB matchup if Amik Robertson is on George Pickens. Lamb is benefitting from extra attention on Pickens and his numbers could be much bigger this year if not for a few uncharacteristic drops and off-target passes from Dak. Lamb should eat in a projected high-scoring game.