SwishLand Projections Edges Thursday 2/26

Top 5 Projection vs Sportsbook Differences

#1 Dejounte Murray (NOP vs UTA)

⬇️ UNDER ASSISTS: 4.2 proj vs 5.5 line (-1.3)

Dejounte Murray's assists projection of 4.2 is lower than the market line of 5.5, which indicates that the betting market expects him to perform better in this category than our projections suggest. This discrepancy could be due to a few factors, such as recent trends in his play or expectations around the game context.

However, looking at the recent hit rates, he hasn't hit this assists line in any of his last games, going 0 for 1 in the last 5, 10, and season as well. Additionally, the current line is significantly higher than his recent average market (which was around 3.5). Overall, this suggests that the market may be pricing in potential changes in his role or increased playmaking opportunities, but the numbers don't currently support that expectation based on his recent performance.

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#2 Andrew Wiggins (MIA vs PHI)

⬇️ UNDER REBOUNDS: 4.2 proj vs 5.5 line (-1.3)

Wiggins's rebounds projection of 4.2 is lower than the market line of 5.5, indicating a negative edge of -1.3. This could be due to several factors, including his recent performance and the matchup against Philadelphia. He has been trending up in rebounds, averaging 7.4 over his last 5 games compared to a season average of 5.7. However, the line is set higher likely due to the overall rebounding context against Philadelphia, which has a middle-of-the-pack rebound rate (#21). So, while he has been performing well recently, the market might be pricing in a tougher matchup or a return to his season averages.

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#3 Kyle Filipowski (UTA vs NOP)

⬇️ UNDER REBOUNDS: 6.6 proj vs 8.5 line (-1.9)

Kyle Filipowski's rebounds projection of 6.6 is lower than the market line of 8.5 due to a few factors. First, his recent performance shows he's hit the rebounds line only 2 out of his last 5 games and 6 out of 15 for the season. Additionally, looking at his recent stats, he's averaging 6.6 rebounds, which is below his season average of 7.9.

The market line might be influenced by the fact that New Orleans has a poor rebound rate (#24), suggesting there could be opportunities for rebounds. However, the projection indicates that Filipowski hasn't been capitalizing on those opportunities as effectively as expected, hence the lower projection compared to the market line.

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#4 Noah Clowney (BKN vs SAS)

⬇️ UNDER REBOUNDS: 3.5 proj vs 4.5 line (-1.0)

Noah Clowney's rebounds projection of 3.5 is lower than the market line of 4.5 likely because of a few key factors. First, his recent rebounding performance shows him averaging only 4.4 rebounds over the last five games, which is slightly below his season average of 5.0. Additionally, the matchup against San Antonio is tough, as they rank #5 in rebound rate, indicating they are difficult to rebound against. This combination of factors likely influenced the market to set a higher line despite his lower projection.

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#5 Donovan Clingan (POR vs CHI)

⬇️ UNDER REBOUNDS: 10.4 proj vs 13.5 line (-3.1)

Donovan Clingan's rebounds projection is lower than the market line due to a couple of factors. His recent performance has seen him average 13.0 rebounds, which is in line with his season average of 13.3, but his projections suggest he may not consistently hit the higher line of 13.5. Additionally, the current line has been adjusted based on recent market trends, which may reflect his higher recent averages, but the projection remains cautious, potentially due to matchup considerations or usage trends. Overall, there's a discrepancy where the market is pricing him higher than what models predict based on his typical performance.

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