🏀 NBA Finals Game 5 Bets
Jalen Williams O 1.5 Q1 REB (+110 B365)
Playable to -120
Beautiful hit rate here: over in 10 of last 13 and every game in the finals. I like the way it's trending for him as well. His q1 minutes shot up to 11 last game in conjunction with his increased aggression over the last 3 games. If Hartenstein starts again, that's a solid 4-5 minutes of action where he's guarding Nesmith to start the game which means he's guarding someone mostly involved in the offense through spot ups and off ball action.
SGA SGP: 30+ PTS / U 45.5 PRA (+360 B365 | .5u)
Playable to +275
The odds here are too much to my liking to pass up. He's done this in 2 of 4 games this series and 8 times in the playoffs overall. If you want a safer play, continue to look for Over pts/Under ast wherever you can get it.
Chet Holmgren U 1.5 AST (-145 B365)
Playable to -155
Ok, I'll stop fading his boards. But not his ast! He's still averaging barely 1 potential ast per game and is just not a connector in this series. Meaning, when he gets the ball in the flow of the offense, it's in an iso spot or a ready to score spot.
Lu Dort O 1.5 3PM (-158 FD)
Playable to -165
I understand ppl not wanting to play these shit odds, but I'm looking for the easy W here. He's averaging 7 attempts in the playoffs at home with a 73% hit rate over 11 games. Lfg Lu.
Nesmith O 15.5 PR (-120 B365)
Playable to 16.5
I'm still playing the number here, meaning I have his projection at 18.4 in 28 minutes and that should be his floor if he can avoid major foul trouble. Whenever he has not had 3+ fouls by halftime, he's seeing 30+ minutes and that's all I need to know for a guy averaging 19 PR in 28 minutes per game in the playoffs.
TJ McConnell O 10.5 PA (-115 B365)
Playable to -135
Our guy had 10 potential ast last game and just 2 dimes. I know he hit the pts and not the PA (brutal) but I'm not abandoning the ast with that kind of volume.
Pascal Siakam O 29.5 PRA (-122 FD)
Playable to -140
I should've been betting this the whole time and I didn't play it right. No real excuse here, just didn't put the bets down for him and I regret it. With the way he's getting to the line (7.3 FTA per game) he's getting 5-6 easy pts per game. Plus, with Hartenstein starting and guarding him, he's getting more 3s up and has a better matchup than with Jalen Williams guarding him for a full game.
Andrew Nembhard O 10.5 PTS (+100 FD)
Playable to -120
Nembhard is actually a better scorer on the road in the playoffs since last season... the rare role player who's better away. Since last year, in 19 away playoff games he's at 13.8 ppg, over in 16 of 19.
Andrew Nembhard SGP 10+ PTS / U 7.5 RA (+236 DK | .5u)
He's also not involved in the playmaking dept anymore and his drives are down to 6th on the team!! His aggression has just plummeted and he's turned into a spot up scorer who will only drive to the hoop if he's got a bad defender on him. But the attempts are there as a spot up and the Thunder will leave him open when he's off ball so let's get it.
