NBA Bets Saturday, 12/20
NBA Bets Saturday, 12/20
Derik Queen O 11.5 RA (-110 FD)
Derik Queen 10+ REB/6+ AST (+720 FD | .3u)
Neemias Queta O 8.5 REB (-122 FD)
Neemias Queta DD (+195 FD | .5u)
Cam Spencer O 13.5 PTS (-130 MGM)
Ivica Zubac O 10.5 REB (-122 CZR)
Isaiah Collier O 5.5 AST (-130 MGM)
LaMelo Ball O 11.5 RA (-116 DK)
Donovan Clingan O 2.5 AST (+168 DK)
Donovan Clingan O 10.5 PTS (-123 DK)
Quick Note From Me
Write ups incoming, I'm working quickly to get my bets down and share them here. We also have a live show today on YouTube at 3:15pm EST. Bring ya bets and jump in the comments, see y'all there.
Derik Queen
Everything is low for Queen today vs IND. When we look at Queen's recent lines vs much better competition, he's had higher lines vs similar poor defenses to the Pacers like the Bulls and Blazers. He only had 3 ast vs the Rockets and we think that game shouldn't push his ast lines down so far.
As for the rebs, it's one of the best matchups in the league for bigs rebs and yet his lines are the same numbers as his recent matchups for boards which were much more difficult.
Neemias Queta
Great opportunity for him to reach 30 minutes without JB playing. Plus, Poeltl is out giving him a matchup with Sandro, who we love on offense but NOT on the defensive boards.
Cam Spencer
I missed the 5.5 ast for Cam at anything better than -150 odds so I passed and went for the pts vs WAS. When he's playing with out Ja, he's at about 21 pts per 36 minutes and he's normally playing without Ja. Meaning, this is all about his increase in minutes this game with so few guards available for MEM. It's basically he and Jaylen Wells in the backcourt this game.
Ivica Zubac
Similar to our Derik Queen reasoning, we have to look at recent closing lines and results for Zu to learn that the market has determined he should be at 11.5 vs easy competition. And well, with no Ayton and more Jaxson Hayes, we'd say this is an easy matchup for Zu against his former squad.
Isaiah Collier
ORL is a much tougher matchup to assist for Collier than LAL last game, no question. That said, he could play on Mars vs the Monstars and I'd take him to get 6 ast if I think he's even sniffing 24 minutes. He's not on Mars tho, he's at home in UTA where Jazz games average about 244 ppg. With Markkanen out again and his floor at about 20 minutes and his ceiling around 28, I'm in.
LaMelo Ball
For those who were already in the community a month or 2 ago, you'll remember that I said 11.5 RA for LaMelo in a game he's expected to play even 25 minutes is a gift. The matchup is not ideal, but the number is too low for me to pass on for a guy averaging 14.6 RA per 25 minutes over the last 2 seasons.
Donovan Clingan
Cling Kong is in line for another juicy matchup with the offensively-talented Maxime Raynaud. Notice I said Raynaud is offensively talented, not defensively. Clingan had a poor rebounding game in that last one, and certainly got a hot on the potential ast, picking up 4 dimes on just 4 potentials. But, the matchup is too good to pass on more ast and points and considering he left 8 points at the line en route to 19 in total, I'd say 10.5 is a gift.
