NBA Bets Saturday, 10/25
Saturday, October 25
Mouhamed Gueye U 20.5 PRA (+107 CZR)
Matas Buzelis O 21.5 PR (-115 MGM)
Ayo Dosunmu O 11.5 PTS (-104 FD)
Tristan da Silva 15+ PRA (+140 DK)
VJ Edgecomb 20+ PTS (+132 FD)
Quentin Grimes O 7.5 RA (-115 FD)
Pascal Siakam O 7.5 REB (-120 FD)
Siakam 10+ REB (+200 FD | .5u)
Mouhamed Gueye U 20.5 PRA
Playable to -115
Kristaps and Jalen Johnson are out this game, but I still think Mo Gueye plays in the low 20s for minutes, short of Okongwu getting into foul trouble. They'll have Nickeil Alexander-Walker and Dyson Daniels in the mid to high 30s for minutes, and Okongwu will play at least the same, again, if he can keep his fouling-all-the-time ass out of trouble. Gueye had more than 20 PRA 4 times in 35 games last season. While Jalen Johnson was missing in all of those, I believe the NAW addition to ATL will keep Gueye's minutes low in this one.
Matas Buzelis O 21.5 PR (-115 MGM)
Playable to -130
It's Matas season this year on the LYB channel. I wanted to see him in one game to make sure Billy Donovan saw what everyone else saw and gave him proper minutes accordingly. I would say 34 minutes in the first game of the season is satisfactory. I like this game's pace to stay high with Chicago looking to keep ORL in transition on the second night of a back-to-back. That bodes well for Matas, who should also see added minutes once again from the absence of Coby White and Zach Collins.
Ayo Dosunmu O 11.5 PTS (-104 FD)
Playable to 12.5
Great spot for Ayo as well, who is the main beneficiary of Coby White missing games. Last season without White, Ayo was up at 30 minutes per game (he had 27 in game 1 vs DET) and averaged 16.5 per night, hitting 12+ in 4 of 5. I also like that he went over in both meetings with Orlando last season, especially considering White played in both of those games.
Tristan da Silva 15+ PRA (+140 DK)
Playable to +120
I love the way ORL has played da Silva in the first 2 games. He saw 18 minutes in the first game, and 24 in the second. He's also been relied upon to shoot (9 FGA per game) in an offense that hasn't offered that much improvement since last season through 2 games. Now, Jalen Suggs is sitting the second night of a back-to-back as expected coming into the season. With Chicago's awful defense and fast pace, this is another 8+ FGA kind of night for da Silva.
VJ Edgecomb 20+ PTS (+132 FD)
Playable to +110
As you can tell, I dismissed the O 17.5 PTS for the rookie and went straight to 20+. His 42 minutes in game 1 are going to be hard to replicate consistently, but I do think he sees mid 30s on the regular. He also took 26 shots and even if that comes down to earth in favor of a few more Maxey attempts, or even Embiid (who only played 20 minutes by the way), we're still looking at an expected 15+ attempts. I think Embiid takes it easy once again as coaches have said he's on a minutes limit, so this is shaping up similarly to the first game vs. Boston.
Quentin Grimes O 7.5 RA (-115 FD)
Playable to -130
SwishLand projections say Grimes will be up at 30+ minutes once again and these numbers are too low for how many touches he had last game and how many potential assists. With his high minutes likely incoming once again, I like the rebounds as well vs. a Charlotte team lacking in much height and rebounding outside of its two centers.
Pascal Siakam O 7.5 REB (-120 FD)
If you don't think the Siakam rebounds in game 1 were a fluke (and I don't) then we're getting great value at 7.5 once again. I think he's looking at about an average of 8.5 this season with the lack of a legit center around him. Isaiah Jackson fouled 4 times in 8 minutes and barely played as a result vs OKC. Jay Huff is NOT a great rebounding center, making Pascal the team's top rebounder when he's on the floor. And on the floor he shall be a lot all season.
