NBA Bets Monday, 12/22
NBA Bets Monday, 12/22
Moussa Diabate O 8.5 REB (-122 FD)
Jarrett Allen DD (+135 FD)
Neemias Queta O 8.5 REB (-113 FD)
Neemias Queta DD (+262 DK | .5u)
Ajay Mitchell O 12.5 PTS (-128 FD)
Isaiah Joe O 2.5 3s (+112 FD)
Quick Note From Me
This is likely all I'm going to get down today but you never know. There's such a huge slate tomorrow that will take a lot of time to get through and I imagine tomorrow's card will be pretty full.
As always, make sure you're connected to the Discord to receive updates as fast as possible.
Moussa Diabate
With Kalkbrenner out, we have a solid floor for Moussa's minutes around 25, with the potential to get up to 30+. Plumlee is always hanging around to steal minutes, but even in about 28 minutes, we should have Moussa pegged for about 22 rebound chances based on his season averages alone. CLE is not a good rebounding team and likely won't be in this game without Evan Mobley either.
Jarrett Allen
And despite everything I just said about Moussa, I still like Allen back up at 30+ minutes. He was consistently at around 32-36 last season without Mobley and it appears he's been slowly ramped back up to the 30s over the last week or so. We're getting a great price on Allen DD if he's back up to even 28 or so minutes without Mobley in a plus matchup today.
Neemias Queta
Here we go again... it didn't work out last game when Queta only pulled down 5 rebs on 15 chances in limited minutes vs Toronto. We get another little bump this game, however, from Walsh being out. Walsh is a more impactful rebounder than Brown and his absence should be much better for Queta's success on the boards than Brown's was vs TOR, especially considering IND is a top 3 easiest matchup for centers rebs.
Ajay Mitchell + Isaiah Joe
I completely buy this 15 point spread for OKC coming off a loss vs the limited roster MEM will showcase tonight. The only reason I don't like many unders for MEM is because there's only about 8 guys that can play so we're probably looking at huge minutes for guys like Spencer, Wells, JJJ, Coward, and Landale.
With the blowout so likely, we turn to Mitchell and Joe, especially considering Caruso, Chet, Hartenstein, Jaylin Williams are OUT and Aaron Wiggins is QUE. Joe goes up big time in blowouts, averaging 7.5 more points per game when they win by 8 or more points. Mitchell should also see those blowout minutes, but is an even better spot than Joe to play about 25-28 minutes regardless of the outcome.
