NBA Bet Recaps Wednesday 1/14

Wednesday Record: 1-8, -3.6u

ALL BETS ARE FOR 0.5 UNITS

❌ Keyonte George O 36.5 PRA (-122 FD)

🪝 Deuce McBride O 10.5 PTS (-130 MGM)

❌ Sam Merrill O 11.5 PTS (-120 DK)

❌ Peyton Watson O 29.5 PRA (-112 DK)

❌ Tre Johnson O 13.5 PTS (-130 MGM)

✅ Brice Sensabaugh O 12.5 PTS (-117 DK)

❌ Saddiq Bey 15+ PTS (+108 DK)

❌ Tyrese Maxey O 27.5 PTS (-111 FD)

❌ Isaiah Collier O 6.5 AST (-102 FD)

John Collins O 15.5 PTS (-110 MGM) - DNP

NBA 25-26 YTD: 234-310, -19.4u

Wednesday 1/14 Write-Ups

Isaiah Collier

For him to hit 6.5 ast, I just need him to play 22 minutes. No Lauri should set his floor at about that number with a ceiling as high as 28 in a normal game and even 32-34 in a blowout. That's not even considering how bad the Bulls are at limiting assists.

Keyonte George

If you can't get 36.5 PRA on your books, 5.5 AST is the biggest edge to me at the moment. Things are moving a little bit quickly as Markkanen went from Questionable to Doubtful about 20 minutes ago. While Keyonte has actually done worse in the few games he's played without Lauri compared to his season averages, most of those games were either on a B2B where UTA was clearly conceding, or tough matchups (eg. vs OKC and that 55-point loss to CHA where he played 23 minutes). I expect George to come out firing and have the ball in his hands most of the minutes he plays.

Deuce McBride

I stayed away from Deuce last game to see how things shook up with the Knicks rotation. I was hopeful that he would maintain good minutes/usage with Hart back and I was right that Mike Brown was going to tighten his rotations and give fewer minutes guys at the far end of the bench. That all played out, but Deuce shot so poorly (3-13 FG), that he only scored 8 points. Now we've got an easier opponent in the Kings and we know Deuce has likely raised his floor from about 20 minutes to 26 with the possibility of playing as many as 35 when they need his offense.

Sam Merrill

Merrill's JPN is 11.5 these days and even though PHI is great at limiting catch & shoot, Merrill don't care - he's averaging 16.8 pts in 11 games vs teams that are in the top 10 limiting that play type. He also gets the nod with the closing lineups as the most and sometimes only reliable 3pt shooter so his minutes are and have been super safe in close games.

Peyton Watson

P Wat is playing for that contract and now even has interestingly juicy odds for MIP at about 150-1. He's now at 34.8 PRA per game in 8 games without Joker. With Braun out again and the Nuggets on a b2b, this isn't an ideal spot against slow-paced DAL, but I'm not leaving the table on this heater.

John Collins

I was hoping one of Zu or Kawhi wasn't going to play and now Zu is out. That should bump up JC to the 3rd option each time down the floor and this is WAS so let's ride.

Tre Johnson

Swish has made me a believer and I have to take Tre at anything under 15 pts these days. He may see some Kris Dunn, who is the only defender to fear on this squad these days, but Dunn should spend most of his time on Kyshawn George. Either way, Tre is going to pull it a lot with this version of WAS until the other Trae shows up (he's now out until after the ASB) so I'm gonna bet on him.

Brice Sensabaugh

Brice has been one of the few guys not in Will Hardy's doghouse over the last few games. Even with Markkanen playing last game he saw 24 minutes and took 8 shots. Now, with Lauri out, he should see his floor rise to about 27 minutes with the opportunity to play 32-34, especially if he's in the SL. It's also a CHI defense still ranked bottom 5 vs catch and shoot and at the rim where Brice scores most of his points off those two areas/play types.

Saddiq Bey

The only thing working against us here is the possibility that Saddiq plays fewer minutes than normal in his 2nd game back from injury and on the second leg of a b2b. Still, even if he plays 26 minutes or so, he's playing without Herb Jones and his usage in those games has been awesome. My Just Push The Button Number (JPB) for Saddiq is closer to 16.5 so I love the value here, especially when you consider BKN is one of the worst defenses in the league vs spot ups + at the rim.

Tyrese Maxey

26-27.5 is my Just Push The Button Number for Maxey these days. Put him on the floor with everyone available today and he's played 7 games, scoring 34 per night, with 28+ in 6 of 7. I'm not the least bit worried about any of the Cavs defenders on ball, despite the fact that they do try to focus on limiting the PnR ball handler. Maxey should also see plenty of points in transition and free throws where the Cavs rank bottom 7 limiting both play types.