NBA Bet Recaps Sunday 1/18

Sunday Record: 3-3, -0.4u

✅ Desmond Bane U 29.5 PRA (-124 CZR)

🪝Franz Wagner O 4.5 REB (-121 DK)

✅ Nic Claxton O 3.5 AST (-114 DK)

✅ Amen Thompson O 17.5 PTS (-106 FD)

❌ Aleperen Sengun O 9.5 REB (+114 FD)

❌ Saddiq Bey O 13.5 PTS (-112 DK)

NBA 25-26 YTD: 242-322, -23.3u

Sunday 1/18 Write-Ups

Franz Wagner O 4.5 REB (-112 DK)

• 27 minutes in first game back // 10 reb chances / 9 rebs

• Even if he plays another 25-29 minutes or so this is still good with a projection of about 5.5 rebs just based on rebs per minute

• I like the defensive matchup with Coward who’s off ball and crashes boards as well, forcing Franz to concentrate on the glass as well

Desmond Bane U 29.5 PRA (-124 CZR)

• Loses too much usage when Franz + Paolo play

• With Franz + Paolo: 21% USG (-3) // 14.1 ppg (-7)

Nic Claxton O 3.5 AST (-114 DK)

• Fair market price for this should absolutely be 4.5, not even mentioning the matchup yet. Plus, MPJ is OUT leaving a lot of touches and usage behind in the SL

• He posted 12 and 10 potentials vs CHI in 2 games this season

• I will also say that he’s seen a bit of a dip in minutes in January since coming back from injury: 27.3 after seeing 31.5 before that

Aleperen Sengun O 9.5 REB (+114 FD)

He was just +104 for 9.5 rebs vs MIN and this hasn’t moved? NOP allows the 8th most reb opportunities to opponents and the 2nd most to Centers.

Saddiq Bey O 13.5 PTS (-112 DK)

• Same cap as always with Bey - no Herb Jones should equal a 15.5 - 16.5 line for Bey in tough matchups / 17.5 in easy matchups. Standing on business with this one.

• Even if he is limited on the catch & shoot vs tough HOU defense, he’s a 3 level scorer likely getting KD as his matchup

Amen Thompson O 17.5 PTS (-106 FD)

• We have fair market points for him at 19 and a 19.5 points projection without even including matchup

• If you can get to the rim vs NOP, you can get yours - 2nd most ppg allowed at the rim and Amen is scoring 63% of his points from there

• 23 points on 14 shots vs NOP last game and that was WITH Herb Jones guarding him (he’s out this game)