NBA Bet Recaps Monday 12/22
Monday Record: 2-4, -1.9u
✅ Moussa Diabate O 8.5 REB (-122 FD)
❌ Jarrett Allen DD (+135 FD)
🪝 Neemias Queta O 8.5 REB (-113 FD)
❌ Neemias Queta DD (+262 DK | .5u)
✅ Ajay Mitchell O 12.5 PTS (-128 FD)
❌ Isaiah Joe O 2.5 3s (+112 FD)
NBA 25-26 YTD: 177-232, -6.4u
Monday 12/22 Write-Ups & Recaps
Moussa Diabate
Writeup: With Kalkbrenner out, we have a solid floor for Moussa's minutes around 25, with the potential to get up to 30+. Plumlee is always hanging around to steal minutes, but even in about 28 minutes, we should have Moussa pegged for about 22 rebound chances based on his season averages alone. CLE is not a good rebounding team and likely won't be in this game without Evan Mobley either.
Recap: This man had 11 rebounds in the 1H alone. He's pretty much an auto-bet for 10+ boards if you can safely project him for 24+ minutes in most matchups.
Jarrett Allen
Writeup: And despite everything I just said about Moussa, I still like Allen back up at 30+ minutes. He was consistently at around 32-36 last season without Mobley and it appears he's been slowly ramped back up to the 30s over the last week or so. We're getting a great price on Allen DD if he's back up to even 28 or so minutes without Mobley in a plus matchup today.
Recap: My biggest disappointment of the night by far goes to Jarrett Allen. He certainly seemed primed for another 30+ minutes in a great, fast-paced matchup vs CHA that should've led to an easy double double. Even in just 12 minutes at the half and 3 fouls he had 8 points and 5 boards. When he picked up his 4th foul in the first few minutes of the 3Q it was pretty much a wrap. I'd still play this again and will absolutely be looking back to Allen props without Mobley in case they're deflated after stupid fouls on Monday.
Neemias Queta
Writeup: Here we go again... it didn't work out last game when Queta only pulled down 5 rebs on 15 chances in limited minutes vs Toronto. We get another little bump this game, however, from Walsh being out. Walsh is a more impactful rebounder than Brown and his absence should be much better for Queta's success on the boards than Brown's was vs TOR, especially considering IND is a top 3 easiest matchup for centers rebs.
Recap: I'm good on Queta for awhile. His minutes are so shaky when you consider Lucas Garza and Hugo González took his minutes tonight despite not being in foul trouble. I clearly don't have a beat on when Queta is going to play big minutes so I'll take a long break from paying to try and figure that out.
Ajay Mitchell + Isaiah Joe
Writeup: I completely buy this 15 point spread for OKC coming off a loss vs the limited roster MEM will showcase tonight. The only reason I don't like many unders for MEM is because there's only about 8 guys that can play so we're probably looking at huge minutes for guys like Spencer, Wells, JJJ, Coward, and Landale.
With the blowout so likely, we turn to Mitchell and Joe, especially considering Caruso, Chet, Hartenstein, Jaylin Williams are OUT and Aaron Wiggins is QUE. Joe goes up big time in blowouts, averaging 7.5 more points per game when they win by 8 or more points. Mitchell should also see those blowout minutes, but is an even better spot than Joe to play about 25-28 minutes regardless of the outcome.
Recap: Ajay Mitchell cashed with ease before he left with an injury. The read was good in that he was safe for usage and minutes regardless of whether or not OKC blew out MEM. They sort of did, covering 15.5, but it was pretty close all game and never far enough away that guys like Isaiah Joe were given more minutes. Joe only played 20 minutes, about 4 below my projection for him thanks to the lack of a large lead for OKC. I'm confident OKC wanted to see SGA and J Dub on the bench for more minutes this game, but they ended up needing them to pull it out comfortably, and it cost us the Joe bet.
