NBA Bet Recaps Monday 1/19

Monday Record: 7-6, -0.2

✅ Ivica Zubac O 10.5 REB (-121 DK)

✅ Victor Wembanyama U 11.5 REB (-135 FD)

✅ AJ Green O 8.5 PTSn (-130 MGM)

✅ Jaylon Tyson O 14.5 PTS (-106 FD)

✅ Dylan Harper O 10.5 PTS / (-122 FD)

✅ Nic Claxton O 3.5 AST (-116 DK)

✅ Mitchell Robinson O 8.5 REB (-113 FD)

❌ Ryan Rollins O 4.5 REB (-136 FD)

❌ Evan Mobley U 4.5 AST (-113 FD)

❌ John Collins O 14.5 PTS (-125 FD)

❌ Brandin Podziemski U 4.5 REB (-112 DK)

❌ Payton Pritchard O 8.5 RA (-112 DK)

❌ Miles McBride O 9.5 PTS (-127 CZR)

NBA 25-26 YTD: 249-328, -23.5

Monday 1/19 Write-Ups & Recaps

AJ Green O 8.5 PTS

Writeup

8.5 is a play pretty much every time without a reason to believe his minutes will dwindle

Mainly the angle is the fact that he’s at 2.5 3s for his prop and that’s pretty much all he does so if the odds are saying he’s likely to hit 3 3s, then I’ll take 8.5 every time

Played just 15 minutes with 4 fouls last game in 18 point blowout to SAS

Recap

Green cruised over but the key for me was the 8.5 pts line for him, I’ll keep hitting that every time and I’ll take O 2.5 3s when it gets to 9.5.

Ryan Rollins O 4.5 REB (-136 DK)

Writeup

5 per game on the season and now he’s up vs the 5th worst rebounding defense vs guards

When he stays out of foul trouble he’s at 30-34 minutes

Recap

This one was definitely a gamble as he saw 29 minutes with 5 fouls. It’s always a gamble with Rollins because of how much he fouls, but I still like 4.5 rebs when he plays full minutes, which is usually about 32 for him.

Jaylon Tyson O 14.5 PTS

Writeup

Tough to argue with these numbers without both Merrill + Garland

15+ pts in all 7 games

32 minutes per game

13 FGA per game

OKC is no. 1 defense to be sure - but also allows 5th most c&s ppg]

Recap

Tyson without Merrill and Garland is going to be a consistent hit as well considering he’s averaging like 21 ppg without those 2. He didn’t get there until the end of the game, but his usage was in line without projections so I’ll go back to this at 14.5 or lower.

Evan Mobley U 4.5 AST

Writeup

Same number as last game vs PHI but now vs OKC with better odds to the under

No J Dub for OKC would hurt except that means that Jaylin Williams likely starts at Center and pushes DPOY candidate Chet down to the 4 to match up with Mobley

Recap

5 ast on 5 potentials, I still like this under consistently at about -115 with how few potential ast he gets but need to monitor the odds and matchup. I still feel this one was unlucky vs OKC good defense and would play it again.

John Collins O 14.5 PTS

Writeup

No Kawhi + easy matchup vs WAS

He’s been on one over the last 7 games or so and that’s been with Kawhi playing a bunch as well

Recap

He lost a lot of minutes to Jordan Miller on Monday and even though he had 4 fouls, I think he’s just liable to lose minutes on any given night as Jordan Miller keeps improving. JC’s minutes may never be safe even with Kawhi OUT.

Zubac O 10.5 REB

Writeup

Fair market is at 10.5 for Zubac

It’s the Wizards and this is basically an every time we get this number bet for Zubac

12 rpg with Kawhi this season

Recap

We took advantage of a low number and even the 11.5 hit in an easy matchup vs WAS. Keep taking opposing centers vs this team, especially on the boards. He got a few more minutes than we thought too considering this game was way closer than expected.

Victor Wembanyama U 11.5 REB

Writeup

Risky and maybe not worth it - but I’m just not sure he’s going to be needed more than 20 minutes

He’s at 28 min per game on the season / 24.2 ppg

Projections fully agree even though it’s 23 pts in 23 minutes

UTA is actually ranked No. 1 in our matchup analysis vs Center Rebs

Recap

10 boards in 26 minutes. We nailed this one even though he played about 4 more minutes than I thought he would’ve. The model had him at 9.7 rebs in 23 minutes so felt really good about this one the whole time.

Dylan Harper O 10.5 PTS

Writeup

The key is the blowout which gets him to 25 minutes, which means this bet should probably be 11.5

We have him fair market 10.7 plus the blowout bump + the easy matchup bump

If you give him 23-27 minutes season: 20.9 PRA / over 9 of 12

Recap

Loved Harper with a 17 point spread vs UTA. His overs will continue to look good at 10.5 vs bad teams that SAS is likely to blow out. However, once Devin Vassell is back, this will likely become less reliable as he gets pushed further down the bench.

Brandin Podziemski U 4.5 REB (-112 DK)

Recap

This bet was looking great through 3.5 quarters as Podz had 2 rebs in about 14 minutes and was only in line to play another 10 or so. Then, Butler went down and Podz stepped up and played a bunch more minutes, which is what usually happens when Butler or Steph or out. You can also make the case that we shouldn’t play unders for opponent rebounds vs MIA. MIA plays incredibly fast and offers up a bunch more rebounding opportunities than most teams.

Nic Claxton O 3.5 AST

Recap

6 dimes in this one and we continue to feast on 3.5 AST. I think we got the 3.5 once again because he’s been playing fewer minutes overall and usually plays fewer minutes on a b2b. That said, Day’Ron Sharpe was out so he didn’t really have a legit backup center and got 37 minutes.

Payton Pritchard O 8.5 RA

Recap

He had 6 RA in the 1H and then didn’t get a single one in the 2H so it definitely stung. 8.5 is still too low for him in normal circumstances and I still say we got good value due to his return from injury, but he played 34 minutes so it’s not like we got side-swiped by a lack of playing time.

Miles McBride O 9.5 PTS (-127 CZR)

Recap

No one on the Knicks is good right now but Miles at 9.5 points is just too low. We’ve established that he’s playing upwards of 30 minutes these days even when he comes off the bench bc the Knicks are fully healthy. It’s tough to overcome an 0-6 start from the field like he did today. He finished 1-8 in 27 minutes so we’ll just keep going back to the well when his lines are too low such as they were today.

Mitchell Robinson O 8.5 REB (-113 FD)

Recap

The man is a monster on the boards and came out with 6 rebs out the gate. It does look like he’s going to keep maxing out at around 19-20 minutes, with the occasional 24-minute game. But in 19 minutes I’ve got him for 10 boards consistently and this matchup with DAL was beautiful without any true Centers in for DAL.