NBA Bet Recaps Friday 1/16

Friday Record: 3-2, +0.4

❌ Lonzo Ball O 3.5 AST (-125 FD)

✅ Evan Mobley U 4.5 AST (-147 DK)

✅ Saddiq Bey O 13.5 PTS (-128 FD)

❌ Marvin Bagley O 15.5 PR (-106 FD)

✅ Day’Ron Sharpe O 15.5 PR (-111 FD)

Andre Drummond O 4.5 REB (+110 FD) - DNP

NBA 25-26 YTD: 237-312, -19u

Friday 1/16 Write-Ups

Lonzo Ball

We have this line at 4.5 ast in 22+ minutes and I'm inclined to agree. Games with no Merrill + no Garland have seen Lonzo at 24 minutes per game so I like his likely usage uptick and in tonight's rematch with PHI.

Saddiq Bey

Going back to Bey at this low number. My worst fears were realized last time out when he played 26 minutes with 12 points. The math still adds up to him at 15-16 points per 30 minutes with a ceiling closer to 34 minutes with Herb Jones out again. Matchup-wise, even though IND takes away the spot up really well, Bey is also scoring 40% of his points at the rim.

Evan Mobley

We have Mobley at about 3.5 ast in full minutes here. The books are likely overcompensating for Mobley's assists after a good game 2 nights ago vs PHI, running extremely hot on the assists vs potential assists. I'm okay drinking the juice with the 1 ast edge on the projections.

Andre Drummond

This is just a numbers play. Drummond at 4.5 rebs even in 13 minutes is very beatable. We have him at 15 minutes / 6.5 rebs coming off the bench and that's in line with his season-long rebs per minute as well.

Marvin Bagley

Revenge game aside for Bags, he's getting upwards of 25 minutes off the bench in the new-look Wizards rotation and we think he's there to stay. Even with Sabonis back, we're looking at limited minutes for him in his first game back in 2 months. Let's keep the Bagley train moving.

Day'Ron Sharpe

It's a similar look for Sharpe, who has been upping his minutes to 20 per night off the bench. He's now gone over these numbers in 3 straight and he seems to have upped his floors as well. This is a plus matchup vs CHI and another good spot for him in 20 minutes.