Nate's TNF Week 16 Recap

Nate's TNF Week 16 Recap

NFL Bets| NFL Bet Recaps
December 22, 2025•2 min read

Nate's TNF Week 16 Record: 3-1, +2u

✅Cooper Kupp o29.5 Rec Yds (-118 MGM) 1.5u

❌Kupp 40+ Rec Yds (+140) .5u

✅Kenneth Walker o10.5 Rec Yds (-107 DK)

✅Sam Darnold o19.5 Completions (+100 MGM) .5u

Nate's NFL 25-26 YTD: 90-106 -9.7u

TNF Week 16 Write-Ups

Cooper Kupp o29.5 Rec Yds (-118 BetMGM)

Ladder to 40+ Rec Yds (+140)

Kupp's first revenge spot against the Rams came with a lot of attention, but it should be easier for him to produce the second go-around. The Rams are playing a ton of 2-high safety looks and they should shade coverage towards Jaxon Smith-Njigba, like most defenses have the past few weeks. That attention has allowed Kupp to get loose a few times and he still has burst with healthy averages of 12.7 yards per catch and 6.5 YAC per reception. The Rams were killed on in-breaking routes by Jared Goff and the Lions last week and the Seahawks can capitalize on that weakness too.

Kenneth Walker III o10.5 Rec Yds (-107 DraftKings)

Playable to 11.5 Rec Yds

Walker is implied up to -172 at FanDuel to record 2-plus receptions. He has big-play ability and we should feel confident about him turning 2 catches into 11+ yards. Walker's playing time dipped surprisingly last week vs. the Colts and it's possible the coaching staff was saving him for a bigger matchup on Thursday. He was huge with 111 scrimmage yards on 19 touches at the Rams in Week 11. With Seattle struggling to run-block, look for OC Klint Kubiak to scheme Walker the ball in space as a receiver.

Sam Darnold o19.5 Completions (+100 BetMGM)

Playable to -110

If we like the above players to catch some passes close to the line of scrimmage and top vulnerable lines, we should also like Darnold to get 20-plus completions. The Seahawks inability to run the ball will pile more volume onto his plate in what projects to be a close game. Darnold's attempts were way down and his yards per attempt led the NFL through the first 8 weeks this season when he was shredding bad teams. Since the Rams put the book out on him in Week 11, he's down from 9.9 YPA to 7.2 on 20.2 completions per game. He was forced to go 29-for-44 in a trailing script at the Rams in that matchup.

nflnfl sports bettingbet recapland your betsthursday night footballtnf
With 10+ years covering the NFL and NBA for The Boston Globe and ESPN, Nate brings a journalist’s depth of knowledge and an analyst’s precision to the betting world. For the past eight years, he’s been a senior NFL handicapper for TheLines.com, where his sharp reads on sides, totals, and player props have built him a loyal following. Nate’s success starts with his early market entry, identifying soft lines before the public and the books fully adjust, locking in value where others hesitate. He has a keen eye for under-the-radar player prop lines, recognizing inefficiencies days before game day. Like the most successful NFL bettors, Nate blends deep statistical modeling with an unmatched ability to interpret coach interviews, injury reports, and subtle scheme changes that can swing a game — or a bet. If you want disciplined, data-driven bets with the kind of detail only a seasoned pro can provide, Nate Weitzer is exactly who you want in your corner this NFL season.

Nate Weitzer

With 10+ years covering the NFL and NBA for The Boston Globe and ESPN, Nate brings a journalist’s depth of knowledge and an analyst’s precision to the betting world. For the past eight years, he’s been a senior NFL handicapper for TheLines.com, where his sharp reads on sides, totals, and player props have built him a loyal following. Nate’s success starts with his early market entry, identifying soft lines before the public and the books fully adjust, locking in value where others hesitate. He has a keen eye for under-the-radar player prop lines, recognizing inefficiencies days before game day. Like the most successful NFL bettors, Nate blends deep statistical modeling with an unmatched ability to interpret coach interviews, injury reports, and subtle scheme changes that can swing a game — or a bet. If you want disciplined, data-driven bets with the kind of detail only a seasoned pro can provide, Nate Weitzer is exactly who you want in your corner this NFL season.

Back to Blog