Nate's TNF Week 15 Recap
Nate's TNF Week 15 Record: 0-4, -4u
❌Chris Godwin o39.5 Rec Yds (-114) 1.5u
❌ 🦜 SGP - Godwin 30+ Rec Yds / Bucs ML (+103)
❌ Tyler Allgeier o7.5 Rush ATT (-120)
❌ Bucky Irving ATTD (+120 FanDuel) .5u
Nate NFL YTD: 79-102 -14.8u
TNF Week 15 Write-Ups
Chris Godwin o39.5 Rec Yds (-114 FanDuel)
SGP - Godwin 30+ Rec Yds / Bucs ML (+103 FD)
This is a good matchup for a receiver like Godwin and a potential value play if Mike Evans (collarbone) isn't able to return or is on a strict pitch count. When Evans is out there, he'll draw coverage from top CB A.J. Terrell and the Falcons other two CB (Mike Hughes and Dee Alford) aren't very scary. Alford moved into the slot when Billy Bowman (Achilles) went down and has struggled in that role. Godwin's workload has increased each week since he returned from injury and he's a reliable option for Baker Mayfield, who is struggling.
Bucky Irving ATTD (+120 at FanDuel)
Playable to +110
Irving might struggle to reach his yardage total, especially if Rachaad White continues to eat into his snaps, but White is not trustworthy near the goal line. Irving is averaging 3.9 yards created per touch and just 4.7 total yards per touch, indicating how shifty he can be to compensate for poor blocking. That also makes him a great red zone weapon and he handled 3 RZ touches in his return in Week 13, before scoring on a reception last week. Atlanta's secondary is tough to beat in close quarters and the Falcons have allowed a league-high 62% of their TDs via the rush in road games.
Tyler Allgeier o7.5 Rush ATT (-120 BetMGM)
Allgeier o27.5 Rush Yds (-116 DraftKings)
Fading Bijan Robinson makes sense in this matchup against a Bucs defense that is elite defending outside zone runs. Bijan managed just 12-24 rushing in Week 1 against Tampa and Allgeier didn't fare too much better at 10-24, but he saw plenty of opportunities while Bijan split out wide as a receiver. Tampa's been vulnerable to receiving backs and Bijan is running more routes with Drake London (PCL) out. The biggest part of this cap is Kirk Cousins at QB on the road, which should force the Falcons coaching staff to be conservative with a ton of run calls. Atlanta is 12% below pass-rate expectation since Cousins became the full-time starter and Allgeier is averaging 10.3 carries with limited efficiency (3.1 YPC) in those three games.
