Nate's NFL Week 13 Black Friday Recap

Nate's NFL Week 13 Black Friday Recap

NFL Bets| NFL Bet Recaps
November 29, 2025•2 min read

Black Friday Week 13 Record: 3-1, +1.2u

✅ A.J. Brown o4.5 Receptions (+102 FanDuel)

❌Caleb Williams o4.5 Rush ATT (-118 FanDuel) 🪝

✅ Williams over 0.5 INT (-106 FanDuel) .5u

✅ SGP: Bears TT u24.5 / Bears +10.5 (+114 DraftKings) .5u

Nate's 25-26 NFL YTD: 75-77 +2.3u

Week 13 Black Friday Write-Ups

A.J. Brown o4.5 Receptions (+102 FanDuel)

Playable to -115

The Eagles have force-fed targets towards Brown in recent weeks with the alpha receiver producing 15 receptions in his last two games. This number is surprisingly low given that trend. Perhaps books think the Bears run defense will get gashed by the Eagles anemic rushing attack, but I'm not buying it with Lane Johnson (foot) out. The Bears play a high rate of man coverage and Brown is dominant against man-to-man with a 45% first-read share this season. His aDOT (11.4) is so low that the receptions seem like a better play than his receiving yards.

Caleb Williams o4.5 Rush ATT (-118 FanDuel)

Also Playing Caleb Williams Yes INT (-106 FanDuel)

The Eagles defense should be all over Williams. He's feasted on poor competition recently but has one of the lowest completion rates in the NFL this season, especially when facing zone or on pressured dropbacks. The Eagles can pressure him and drop into coverage with elite defensive backs limiting his primary targets, so I'd expect more scrambles from Caleb, who leads the NFL in escape rate (8.2%) and has rushed at least 4x in all but one game this season. When he was pressured a ton by the Raiders he rushed 8 times for just 13 yards. The Eagles have forced 6.6 rush attempts to 5 of the last 6 QBs they've faced. The exception is immobile Jared Goff.

SGP: Bears +10.5 / Bears TT u24.5 (+114 DraftKings)

This is an endorsement of the Eagles defense and a criticism of the Eagles offense. The Bears are pretty solid defensively and could get up to five starters back this week, including top CB Jaylon Johnson and their entire LB corps. The Eagles average just 22 PPG without Lane Johnson since 2020 and are far worse offensively this year under OC Kevin Patullo. The idea of them winning by significant margin is dubious, but the idea of Caleb Williams dropping 25+ points on this elite defense is unlikely.

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With 10+ years covering the NFL and NBA for The Boston Globe and ESPN, Nate brings a journalist’s depth of knowledge and an analyst’s precision to the betting world. For the past eight years, he’s been a senior NFL handicapper for TheLines.com, where his sharp reads on sides, totals, and player props have built him a loyal following. Nate’s success starts with his early market entry, identifying soft lines before the public and the books fully adjust, locking in value where others hesitate. He has a keen eye for under-the-radar player prop lines, recognizing inefficiencies days before game day. Like the most successful NFL bettors, Nate blends deep statistical modeling with an unmatched ability to interpret coach interviews, injury reports, and subtle scheme changes that can swing a game — or a bet. If you want disciplined, data-driven bets with the kind of detail only a seasoned pro can provide, Nate Weitzer is exactly who you want in your corner this NFL season.

Nate Weitzer

With 10+ years covering the NFL and NBA for The Boston Globe and ESPN, Nate brings a journalist’s depth of knowledge and an analyst’s precision to the betting world. For the past eight years, he’s been a senior NFL handicapper for TheLines.com, where his sharp reads on sides, totals, and player props have built him a loyal following. Nate’s success starts with his early market entry, identifying soft lines before the public and the books fully adjust, locking in value where others hesitate. He has a keen eye for under-the-radar player prop lines, recognizing inefficiencies days before game day. Like the most successful NFL bettors, Nate blends deep statistical modeling with an unmatched ability to interpret coach interviews, injury reports, and subtle scheme changes that can swing a game — or a bet. If you want disciplined, data-driven bets with the kind of detail only a seasoned pro can provide, Nate Weitzer is exactly who you want in your corner this NFL season.

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