Nate's NFL Sunday Week 15 Recap

Sunday Week 15 Record: 4-4, +0.8u

✅TreVeyon Henderson o45.5 Rush Yds (-114 FanDuel)

✅Joe Burrow o23.5 Completions (-128 DraftKings)

❌ Trevor Lawrence u30.5 Pass Attempts (-114 FanDuel)

✅Theo Johnson o32.5 Rec Yds (-114 FanDuel)

✅Johnson 40+ Rec Yds (+125) .5u

❌ Rashee Rice o65.5 Rec Yds (-113 DraftKings)

❌ SGP - Matthew Stafford u283.5 Passing Yds / 2+ Passing TDs (+156 DraftKings) .5u

❌ Amon-Ra leading receiver in Lions vs. Rams (+310) .3u

Nate's NFL 25-26 YTD: 83-105, -14u

Sunday Week 15 Write-Ups

TreVeyon Henderson o45.5 Rush Yds (-114 FanDuel)

Playable to 48.5 Rush Yds

Good number on the more talented back in a great Patriots offense, facing a weak Bills defense that ranks 30th in EPA rush defense. The Bills have allowed the highest percentage of YDS via rush (48%) on the road this season. Their pass defense is solid and should force the Pats to stick to their outside zone run concepts, with Henderson being more effective than Rhamondre Stevenson on those plays.

Joe Burrow o23.5 Completions (-128 DraftKings)

Playable to 24.5 Completions

The Ravens are No. 1 in rush D EPA since Week 5 and the Bengals rushing attack is weak, so we should expect another high-volume day for Burrow. No Tee Higgins (concussion) means fewer deep shots and more methodical offenses, hence competions/attempts as a play. Burrow is averaging 29.3 completions on 47 attempts in his last three against Baltimore and two of those came on the road. The Bengals play at the fourth-fastest pace and the Ravens are ramping up their pace with Lamar Jackson trending up.

Theo Johnson o32.5 Rec Yds (-114 FanDuel)

Ladder to 40+ Rec Yds (+125)

Washington's pass defense is obviously terrible and is allowing 12 yards per catch to TEs. The key here is the Giants adjusted offensive strategy under interim coach Mike Kafka, who has removed all designed runs for Jaxson Dart and posted the lowest Pass Rate Over Expectation in the NFL in three games. That means more pocket passing and play-action, favoring the top TE. Johnson is fifth among TEs in Air Yards and drew 8 targets with 103 Air Yards in Week 13 at New England.

Trevor Lawrence u30.5 Pass Attempts (-114 FanDuel)

Playable to 29.5 Pass Attempts

Since Liam Coen and the Jags clearly adjusted their offensive strategy to run more and protect Lawrence from turnovers, he's yet to top 30 pass attempts in five starts. Why would he see higher volume against a weak Jets team that has a 13.5 implied total? The Jaguars should run the ball and dominate defensively, and Lawrence could rip off chunk gains on limited pass attempts. Tua only attempted 23 passes last week as Miami averaged 5.8 YPC against a lame-duck Jets team.

Rashee Rice o65.5 Rec Yds (-113 DraftKings) .5u

Playable to 67.5 Rec Yds

Rice is a zone-beater and perfect weapon to deploy against the Chargers conservative drop defense. He averages 2.76 YPRR against zone. The Chargers also allow a healthy amount of YAC due to their defensive strategy. Rice could be motivated to avenge his drop in Week 14 and he's the top target for Patrick Mahomes by far.

Matthew Stafford u284.5 Pass Yds (-111 Caesars)

SGP - Stafford u284.5 Pass Yds / 2+ Passing TDs (+156)

Detroit's defense is much better against the run than against the pass, but the Rams should still have success on the ground like they did three weeks ago in a huge game against Seattle. Kyren Williams and Blake Corum are thriving behind the best run-blocking in the league and Stafford has gone under his passing yards prop in eight straight. He's thrown multiple TDs in 11 of his last 12 and Davante Adams is implied -180 to account for at least one TD against Detroit's injury-riddled secondary that plays a ton of man coverage and has struggled in the red zone.