Nate's TNF Bets Week 8

TNF Bets Week 8

T.J. Hockenson o33.5 Rec Yds (-114 FD)

Justin Jefferson 6+ Rec / 70+ Rec Yds (-105 DK)

Justin Jefferson 6+ Rec / 80+ Rec Yds (+118 DK) .5u

Vikings Team Total o20.5 (-108 DK)

T.J. Hockenson O 33.5 Rec Yds (-114 FanDuel)

Playable to 36.5

The Chargers play a somewhat predictable zone and that should allow Carson Wentz to get comfortable with underneath throws. Hockenson has been ramping up since Wentz took over for J.J. McCarthy with 5.3 catches for 42.3 YPG over his last four outings, narrowly missing another catch and a TD last week. He's up to 82% Route Participation over his last three outings and is implied as high as -158 to go Over 3.5 receptions.

Justin Jefferson 6+ Receptions / 70+ Rec Yds (-105 DraftKings)

Ladder to 7+ Rec / 90+ Rec Yds

This is also a great matchup for Jefferson, who averages 2.26 yards of separation per route against zone coverage. Coming off a tough matchup against shadow CB Quinyon Mitchell and the Eagles, he faces a pass defense that's coughing up 7.7 YPA over their last three games while playing zone on over 82% of snaps. Jefferson averaged 146 YPG while drawing 12 targets per game over two matchups with the Chargers in 2023 and 2021, for what it's worth. But this is more of a play against the expected coverage, which can't shade too far toward Jefferson with Jordan Addison making defenses pay on the other side of the formation.

Vikings O 20.5 Pts (-108 DraftKings)

Clearly like the Vikings to have success passing the ball, and I like Jordan Mason to have success on the ground. If Aaron Jones (hamstring) returns, the Vikes have a slew of weapons to deploy against a reeling defense that's coughing up 5.6 YPC at home this season. There is no real home field advantage at SoFi Stadium and Vikings fans travel. The Chargers have struggled to generate pressure, which is how you beat Wentz. Since we don't know if Joe Alt (ankle) will return, I don't trust the Chargers defense against an elite Vikings scheme. The Vikings defense can get stops on third down and put their offense in favorable positions.