Week 12 Thursday Night Football Best Bets

Nate's TNF Bets Week 12

NFL Bets
November 20, 2025•2 min read

TNF Bets Week 12

Woody Marks u65.5 Rush Yds (-114 FD)

Jayden Higgins o29.5 Rec Yds (-118 MGM) .5u

Josh Allen o6.5 Rush ATT (+116 FD) .5u

Josh Allen Longest Rush o13.5 Yds (-105 DK) .5u

Woody Marks U 65.5 Rush Yds (-114 FanDuel)

Playable to 63.5 Rush Yds

While the Bills run defense is bad, the Texans run offense might be worse. We just saw the Bucs use their elite tackles to spring Sean Tucker for 100-plus scrimmage yards in Buffalo, but Houston's starting tackles rank 67th and 69th of 76 qualifiers in run blocking per PFF grade. Marks is averaging 3.4 YPC with a 23% stuffed rate and Houston's rush offense has the lowest explosive play rate in football. Even on 18 carries in a neutral script last week, he got to 44 rush yards against the Titans. The Bills could definitely force a negative script for the Texans and dare Davis Mills to throw (32.5 Pass ATT). In his previous five games, Marks averaged 10.8 attempts for 38 YPG.

Jayden Higgins o29.5 Rec Yds (-118 BetMGM)

Playable to 31.5 Rec Yds

If the Texans struggle to run and Davis Mills does drop back around 35 times, he'll have to spread it around a bit. Nico Collins has been killing teams and Sean McDermott should scheme to bracket Houston's No. 1 receiver the way the Bills slowed Egbuka last week. Higgins is second in routes, air yards, and targets over the past two weeks with Mills under center. He's posted 4-plus receptions and 90-plus air yards in three of his last five games to top this prop, with the Unders coming against Denver and Seattle, elite secondaries.

Josh Allen o6.5 Rush ATT (+116 FanDuel) .5u

Allen Longest Rush o13.5 Yds (-105 DK) .5u

Houston's defensive line is talented, but generates a bottom-10 pressure rate and the fifth-lowest hurry rate this season. Opposing QBs have extended plays against the Texans and their elite secondary can force scrambles, with Bo Nix, Trevor Lawrence, and Cam Ward producing long runs in their last three games. Allen has posted big rushing numbers in all three primetime games this year (BAL, NE, ATL), mostly using his legs late in a trail script. But we also just saw him use his legs to put the Bucs away last week. James Cook's usage is declining as Joe Brady looks to create a more balanced offense, and Houston's run defense has been lights out at home.

betslybland your betssports bettingnfl bettingNate WeitzerTNF FootballNFL Week 12
With 10+ years covering the NFL and NBA for The Boston Globe and ESPN, Nate brings a journalist’s depth of knowledge and an analyst’s precision to the betting world. For the past eight years, he’s been a senior NFL handicapper for TheLines.com, where his sharp reads on sides, totals, and player props have built him a loyal following. Nate’s success starts with his early market entry, identifying soft lines before the public and the books fully adjust, locking in value where others hesitate. He has a keen eye for under-the-radar player prop lines, recognizing inefficiencies days before game day. Like the most successful NFL bettors, Nate blends deep statistical modeling with an unmatched ability to interpret coach interviews, injury reports, and subtle scheme changes that can swing a game — or a bet. If you want disciplined, data-driven bets with the kind of detail only a seasoned pro can provide, Nate Weitzer is exactly who you want in your corner this NFL season.

Nate Weitzer

With 10+ years covering the NFL and NBA for The Boston Globe and ESPN, Nate brings a journalist’s depth of knowledge and an analyst’s precision to the betting world. For the past eight years, he’s been a senior NFL handicapper for TheLines.com, where his sharp reads on sides, totals, and player props have built him a loyal following. Nate’s success starts with his early market entry, identifying soft lines before the public and the books fully adjust, locking in value where others hesitate. He has a keen eye for under-the-radar player prop lines, recognizing inefficiencies days before game day. Like the most successful NFL bettors, Nate blends deep statistical modeling with an unmatched ability to interpret coach interviews, injury reports, and subtle scheme changes that can swing a game — or a bet. If you want disciplined, data-driven bets with the kind of detail only a seasoned pro can provide, Nate Weitzer is exactly who you want in your corner this NFL season.

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