Nate's Super Bowl Bets
Super Bowl Bets
Rhamondre Stevenson u12.5 Longest Rush (-114 FanDuel)
Drake Maye o30.5 Pass Attempts (-108 FanDuel)
George Holani o9.5 Rec Yds (-120 HardRock)
Sam Darnold o2.5 Rush Attempts (+112 FanDuel) .5u
Cooper Kupp o3.5 Receptions (+130 DraftKings)
Non-QB wins Super Bowl MVP (+195 FanDuel)
1st Half u24.5 / Patriots +6.5 (+104 DraftKings) .5u
Rhamondre Stevenson Longest Rush u12.5 Yards (-114 FanDuel)
Playable to -120
Seattle allowed the lowest explosive rush-play rate (1.9%) this season and finished 1st in YPC allowed and Rush D by EPA. Stevenson isn't a home-run hitter and he didn't break a 13-plus yard run on 25 carries in Denver in the AFC Championship. Different conditions now against a pass-funnel defense with elite gap discipline that should dominate up front.
Drake Maye o30.5 Pass Attempts (-108 FanDuel)
Playable to -115
If the Patriots aren't able to run and they fall behind, we could see a much different passing line from Maye, who has gone Under this prop in five straight including three low-scoring playoff runs. When the Patriots lost twice early in the season, Maye averaged 41.5 attempts. He passed 30 times in a big win at Buffalo and 44 times in a comeback win at Baltimore. The Seahawks are No. 1 in terms of aDOT allowed, so deep shots might give way to shorter completions as the young QB stays patient.
George Holani o9.5 Rec Yds (-120 HardRock)
Playable to 11.5 Rec Yds
The public is fading Kenneth Walker as a workhorse back against an elite Patriots run defense. Holani should see more snaps if the Seahawks can't run it because Walker has been bad in pass protection this season. Holani ran 17 routes on 23 snaps in the NFC Championship with Zach Charbonnet (knee) out and he slots into that same role with extra prep time. The Pats allowed the fifth-most receptions to RBs this season and funneled targets away from wide receivers.
Sam Darnold o2.5 Rush Attempts (+112 FanDuel) .5u
Playable to 11.5 Rec Yds
Darnold has hit this in six of his last seven games with the exception coming in a massive blowout over the 49ers. The Pats great interior defensive line should generate pressure up the middle and force him to scramble once or twice. The Seahawks could call some bootlegs to get him outside the pocket and he will run if nothing is open. Lastly, Darnold could get a rush attempt or two on a kneel down if the Seahawks win.
Cooper Kupp o3.5 Receptions (+130 DraftKings)
Playable to +125
The 2021 Super Bowl MVP should be involved in this matchup as the Patriots look to stop Jaxon Smith-Njigba. Kupp has benefitted in two playoff games so far with 9 catches for 96 yards on 11 targets. The Pats are more vulnerable in the slot and underneath with Carlton Davis and Christian Gonzalez denying downfield boundary throws. Kupp is a reliable third-down option for Darnold to target when pressured.
Non-QB to Win Super Bowl MVP (+195 FanDuel)
Consider The Field vs. Darnold (-155)
Fade Darnold, to a degree, but back the Seahawks and expect one of their skill players or defensive stars to grab Super Bowl MVP. Mike Vrabel and his staff can confuse Darnold and force mistakes from the turnover-prone QB. The Seahawks D should swarm Drake Maye with sacks and potential turnovers to take control of the game. We're overdue for a non-QB to win Super Bowl MVP and this is the matchup to find an unexpected winner.
SGP - 1st Half: Patriots +6.5 / u24.5 (+104 DraftKings) .5u
1st Half Under 23.5 (-135 FanDuel)
Would expect a slow start from both inexperienced QBs against superior defenses. These are the top two scoring defenses and they've been even better in the first half during the playoffs. The Pats are not finishing drives in the red zone and only got double-digit points in Denver thanks to a fumble by Jarrett Stidham. But their defense is playing well and should disguise coverages enough to keep the Seahawks from running away early.
