Nate's Sunday Wild Card Bets

Sunday Wild Card Bets

Dalton Kincaid o38.5 Rec Yds (-110 BetMGM)

Josh Allen o13.5 Longest Rush (-114 FD)

Trevor Lawrence u35.5 Longest Completion (-114 FD) .5u

Saquon Barkley 80+ Rush Yds / ATTD (+178 FD) .5u

Justin Herbert o1.5 Passing TD (+105 Bet365)

Rhamondre Stevenson o35.5 Rush Yds (-110 Bet365)

Dalton Kincaid o38.5 Rec Yds (-110 BetMGM)

Kincaid Longest Reception o18.5 (-120)

Kincaid is Josh Allen's favorite target and a logical player to feature in this matchup. The Jaguars shut down the road and funnel targets towards the interior. They're allowing 59.1 YPG to opposing TEs and Kincaid leads all TEs in YPRR and aDOT. Allen isn't afraid to push it downfield into tight windows and he has a 149 QB rating when targeting Kincaid.

Josh Allen o13.5 Yds Longest Rush (-114 FanDuel)

Playable to 14.5 Yds

It's no secret that Allen runs more in the playoffs and runs more in big games. The Jaguars are elite in coverage and against the run, so he'll have to drop back often and try to make plays with his legs to offset Buffalo's struggling defense. Allen has a rush of 11-plus yards in 9 of his last 10 games and his average longest rush is 15.2 yards in that span.

Trevor Lawrence u35.5 Yds Longest Completion (-114 FanDuel)

Playable to -115

The Bills simply don't allow deep shots under Sean McDermott. This year they've given up the fewest passing YPG and least YAC by a good margin. Teams are willing to run the ball and check it down underneath their zone coverage. Buffalo has allowed just one pass of 40 yards all season, the lowest long allowed by any defense. Lawrence has lit up some bad defenses down the stretch, but this is a different challenge and he should be conservative in a playoff game.

Saquon Barkley o79.5 Rush Yds + ATTD (+178 FD)

Consider o18.5 Rush ATT (-120)

San Franciso's beleaguered front seven just got worse with Tatum Bethune (groin) done for the year and Dee Winters (ankle) questionable. They've allowed a 50% rush success rate since losing DL Mykel Williams midseason and should get steamrolled by this Eagles OL, especially if Lane Johnson is back. Barkley is obviously a proven playoff performer and the Eagles should feed him early and often since their passing attack has been lackluster under OC Kevin Patullo.

Justin Herbert o1.5 Passing TD (+105 Bet365)

Playable to -110

Narratives about Justin Herbert's playoff failures are small sample theatre. He had two bad games, and one can be blamed on Brandon Staley - a terrible head coach. This year Herbert's been a beast behind a terrible offensive line and he's still getting it done. The Patriots are the third-worst red zone defense by opponent TD percentage and have been even worse (78.3%) in home games. They also allow 73% of opponent TDs via the pass and the Chargers struggle to run near the goal line.

Rhamondre Stevenson o35.5 Rush Yds (-110 Bet365)

Playable to 41.5 Rush Yds

The Chargers defense is built on containing deep throws and they'll be very worried about Drake Maye bombing it, so they'll probably be content to let the Pats hand it off. Stevenson is in a near even split with TreVeyon Henderson but the rookie could play a tick less in the playoffs. Stevenson out-snapped him 35-25 in a similar matchup against Buffalo's drop defense last month. Regardless, the veteran has 40+ rush yds in 5 straight since getting healthy and the Pats have a solid OL now that Will Campbell is back.