Nate's Divisional Round Bets
Saturday Divisional Round Bets
Josh Allen ATTD (-105 FD) .5u
Allen 2nd Half TD (+230 FD) .5u
Dawson Knox o20.5 Rec Yds (-110 BetMGM)
RJ Harvey u81.5 Rush + Rec Yds (-112 DraftKings)
Rashid Shaheed o23.5 Rec Yds (-110 Bet 365) 1.5u
Shaheed 40+ Rec Yds (+225 FD) .5u / Shaheed 50+ Rec Yds (+370) .25u
Josh Allen ATTD (-105 FD)
Allen 2nd Half TD (+230 FD) .5u
Allen is a locomotive near the goal line and Buffalo's best bet to finish drives against a stellar Broncos defense. Scoring in the second half seems more likely given his tendency to rush more when the Bills are trailing late, and how low-scoring Denver's games have started. Allen has 8 rushing TDs over his last 7 playoff games and has been used a ton on tush push and QB sneaks this season.
Dawson Knox o20.5 Rec Yds (-110 BetMGM)
Playable to 23.5 Rec Yds
The Bills should run a ton of 13 personnel with their blocking TEs and Knox is an underrated receiver when utilized on play-action. Knox has 30-plus yards in Buffalo's last six games that I would classify as big games or losses, averaging 42.8 YPG in that span. Buffalo's receiving corps has no real advantages against Denver's secondary and I would expect Khalil Shakir's insane usage last week to dip in this matchup. Dalton Kincaid is in a walking boot and hasn't been healthy all season, plus he'll draw a ton of Denver's attention.
RJ Harvey u81.5 Rush + Rec Yds (-112 DraftKings)
Playable to 78.5 Rush + Rec Yds
Ed Oliver is expected to return for Buffalo and make a bigtime impact in their run defense. Denver has shied away from a heavy rush-play rate since losing JK Dobbins and Harvey hasn't appeared ready for a workhorse role, he's struggling with the 49th grade among 55 RBs this season per PFF. Jaleel McLaughlin could siphon work from the rookie and the Broncos could continue to post a high pass rate over expectation.
Rashid Shaheed o23.5 Rec Yds (-110 bet365)
Ladder to 40+ and 50+ Yds
Shaheed was acquired at the trade deadline and never got into a featured role for Seattle. That could change after a bye week. He was heating up with two long catches in Weeks 14 and 15 before posting a dud against the Rams and getting concussed in Week 17. Then he posted just 2 yards in a 13-3 win over San Francisco, hence the low number. But the rematch projects to be higher scoring and the 49ers defense is still exploitable at all levels. Shaheed led all WRs in air yards and deep target share with Derek Carr last year, and Sam Darnold has been willing to push it downfield as well.
Sunday Divisional Round Bets
Rhamondre Stevenson o37.5 Rush Yds (-114 bet365)
Drake Maye o33.5 Longest Pass (-110 DraftKings) .5u
Davante Adams o54.5 Rec Yds (-115 BetMGM) 1u / o4.5 Rec (+105 bet365) .5u
Puka Nacua o2.5 Rush Yds (-116 DraftKings) .5u
D'Andre Swift o12.5 Rec Yds (-110 bet365)
Rhamondre Stevenson o37.5 Rush Yds (-114 bet365)
Playable to 39.5 Rush Yds
Stevenson played well ahead of rookie TreVeyon Henderson in the Pats first playoff game with a 40-26 edge on snaps and he averaged 5.3 YPC against a solid Chargers defense. The matchup is tougher this week against Houston, but the Pats need to establish the run to slow Houston's pass rush and Stevenson is the more reliable, conservative option at tailback. He's averaging 68.5 YPG over his last 4 home games.
Drake Maye o33.5 Longest Pass (-110 DraftKings)
Playable to -115
The Texans defense is so good that they can rely on their base formation and play more man coverage than other teams, daring the opposition to beat their cornerbacks deep. Maye will take that bait, considering he's been the best deep passer in the NFL this season. He's posted a 30-plus yard completion in seven straight starts and hit a 48-yarder against a Chargers defense that is far more conservative in terms of 2-high safety looks. The Texans are 3rd in opponent's completion rate, but 26th in average depth of target, indicating teams try to beat them over the top.
Davante Adams o54.5 Rec Yds (-115 BetMGM)
Over 4.5 Rec (+105 bet365) .5u
Adams is elite against man coverage and the Bears CBs have struggled in man defense. The veteran came back from a hamstring injury and drew a massive 13 targets against a good Panthers CB duo that got away with a few tugs and holds on Adams. This offense is streamlined to target Adams and Puka Nacua and the former Packers WR should be used to playing in the cold and in Chicago.
Puka Nacua o2.5 Rush Yds (-116 DraftKings)
Playable to 3.5 Rush Yds
Nacua has been used in motion a ton over the past few weeks with Adams out, and that continued in the playoff win at Carolina, with the BYU product taking three handoffs for 14 yards. He closed the regular season with two carries for 24 yards against Arizona and faces a slower Bears defense this week that is giving up 1.12 rush attempts per game to WRs, the second-most in the NFL.
D'Andre Swift o12.5 Rec Yds (-110 bet365)
Playable to 13.5 Rec Yds
The Bears lost LT Ozzy Trapilo and will be pressed to get the ball out quickly against a dangerous Rams front. Swift is a good outlet against a defense that plays light boxes at the second-highest rate and has given up the sixth-highest explosive play rate since Week 12. Swift is 7th among RBs in explosive play rate and 8th in yards per touch. He should play ahead of Kyle Monangai again given the Rams tendency to shut down power backs and struggle against shiftier backs, as evidenced by the splits from Chuba Hubbard vs. Rico Dowdle last week.
