NFL Conference Championship Bets

Nate's Conference Championship Bets

NFL Bets
January 23, 2026•3 min read

Conference Championship Bets

Jarrett Stidham o46.5 Pass + Rush Yds 1Q (-112 FanDuel) .5u

Broncos +4.5 (-112 Caesars)

Drake Maye u31.5 Rush Yds (-115 BetMGM)

Marvin Mims o25.5 Rec Yds (-110 bet365)

Kenneth Walker u85.5 Rush Yds (-110 bet365)

Rashid Shaheed o23.5 Rec Yds (-114 FanDuel)

Shaheed o14.5 Longest Rec (-118 FanDuel)

Jarrett Stidham o46.5 Pass + Rush Yds 1Q (-112 FanDuel)

Broncos +4.5 (-112)

Start Sunday off with a fun bet to potentially cash out early in the AFC Championship. Taking Stidham to produce in the 1st quarter is a bet on Sean Payton's preparation with a backup QB. Payton is a mastermind who has produced with backups before. The Broncos should be competitive at home, if not win outright, and this spread is a bit disrespectful due to the injury to Bo Nix. Denver's defense will pressure Drake Maye and potentially make a few game-changing plays to set up Stidham for success.

Drake Maye u31.5 Rush Yds (-115 BetMGM)

Playable to 30.5 Rush Yds

The Broncos have been elite containing rushing QBs for most of the season, with extremely low totals from Jaxson Dart, Patrick Mahomes, Jalen Hurts, and others. Containing Maye will be a big part of their game plan and they should be able to execute given the Patriots struggles on the offensive line.

Marvin Mims Jr. o25.5 Rec Yds (-110 bet365)

Playable to 27.5 Rec Yds

This is gaining steam with Troy Franklin (hamstring) looking iffy to suit up Sunday. Mims had a huge game (8-of-8 targets, 93 yards) against the Bills and his receiving lines opened very low before getting bet quickly. He profiles as the type of quick slot receiver to challenge a Patriots secondary that is physical, and slower than others, and ranks 25th in DVOA pass D. The Pats can match up Christian Gonzalez and Carlton Davis on Denver's boundary receivers, forcing Stidham and Payton to design targets underneath to Mims.

Kenneth Walker u85.5 Rush Yds (-110 bet365)

Consider u19.5 Rush ATT (+105 bet365)

A market assumption that Walker will blow up because Zach Charbonnet (knee) is out for the year could be an overreaction. Walker's prop is nearly 30 yards higher than it would be if Charbonnet was active, but backup George Holani is available to take a few touches. Walker is dangerous as a receiver and the Rams defense is far more vulnerable on screens and deep passes than it is against the run. The Rams rank 5th in DVOA rush D and 6th in limiting explosive rush plays, so the fact that Walker broke a 55-yard rushing TD in Week 16 against the Rams is a bit of an outlier.

Rashid Shaheed o23.5 Rec Yds (-114 FanDuel)

Longest Rec o14.5 Yds (-118 FanDuel)

I'm doubling down on Shaheed after he failed to record a catch last week, but made a massive impact in the first half. He was pulled down on a P.I. call in the first quarter that negated a potential 20-yarder, and should remain heavily involved against a Rams D that's giving up the sixth-most explosive pass plays since Week 12. The Rams sold out to stop Jaxon Smith-Njigba in Week 16 and Shaheed could step up if that's their approach again.

betslybland your betssports bettingNate WeitzerLYB FootballSunday NFLNFL Playoff betsNFL Player PropsNFC ChampionshipAFC Championship
With 10+ years covering the NFL and NBA for The Boston Globe and ESPN, Nate brings a journalist’s depth of knowledge and an analyst’s precision to the betting world. For the past eight years, he’s been a senior NFL handicapper for TheLines.com, where his sharp reads on sides, totals, and player props have built him a loyal following. Nate’s success starts with his early market entry, identifying soft lines before the public and the books fully adjust, locking in value where others hesitate. He has a keen eye for under-the-radar player prop lines, recognizing inefficiencies days before game day. Like the most successful NFL bettors, Nate blends deep statistical modeling with an unmatched ability to interpret coach interviews, injury reports, and subtle scheme changes that can swing a game — or a bet. If you want disciplined, data-driven bets with the kind of detail only a seasoned pro can provide, Nate Weitzer is exactly who you want in your corner this NFL season.

Nate Weitzer

With 10+ years covering the NFL and NBA for The Boston Globe and ESPN, Nate brings a journalist’s depth of knowledge and an analyst’s precision to the betting world. For the past eight years, he’s been a senior NFL handicapper for TheLines.com, where his sharp reads on sides, totals, and player props have built him a loyal following. Nate’s success starts with his early market entry, identifying soft lines before the public and the books fully adjust, locking in value where others hesitate. He has a keen eye for under-the-radar player prop lines, recognizing inefficiencies days before game day. Like the most successful NFL bettors, Nate blends deep statistical modeling with an unmatched ability to interpret coach interviews, injury reports, and subtle scheme changes that can swing a game — or a bet. If you want disciplined, data-driven bets with the kind of detail only a seasoned pro can provide, Nate Weitzer is exactly who you want in your corner this NFL season.

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