Nate's NFL Bets Sunday Week 8

NFL Week 8 Bets

Chuba Hubbard o14.5 Rec Yds (-114 FD)

SGP - Josh Allen 220+ Pass Yds / Khalil Shakir 40+ Rec Yds (+130 FD) 1.5u

Courtland Sutton o60.5 Rec Yds

SGP - Tyler Allgeier 25+ Rush Yds / ATL Over 26.5 Pts (+110 DK)

SGP - Tyler Allgeier ATTD / ATL -2.5 (+235 DK) .5u

Alvin Kamara o3.5 Receptions (+104 FD) .5u

Teaser (+140) - Patriots (-1) / Steelers (+9) / Saints (+10.5)

Steelers +3 .5u / Steelers ML .25u

Chuba Hubbard o14.5 Rec Yds (-114 FanDuel)

Playable to -120

Roles should be more defined for the Panthers backfield this week. Rico Dowdle is a good bet to top 11.5 carries and/or 51.5 rushing yards as an early-down grinder against a bad Bills run defense. Hubbard is still a big part of this team, and out-snapped Dowdle, 38-33, last week. He should fit in as a receiver against a Bills team that could build a lead and give up short passes underneath. Andy Dalton found Chuba on 18-of-19 targets in his four starts last year. Chuba ran 17 routes in a comfortable win last week and still reached 24 receiving yards.

SGP - Josh Allen 220+ Passing Yds / Khalil Shakir 40+ Rec Yds (+130 FanDuel)

In recent seasons the Bills have come out of their bye with a renewed focus on pounding the rock. But this week they face a Panthers team that ranks 3rd in EPA per rush and 27th in DVOA against the pass. Carolina's secondary is extremely vulnerable over the middle of the field, where Shakir operates. With Josh Palmer (ankle) out and Dalton Kincaid (oblique) hobbled, Shakir has a clear path to targets.

Courtland Sutton o60.5 Rec Yds (-114 FanDuel)

Playable to 63.5 Yds

This is a pretty simple play targeting the top receiver against a very beatable Cowboys secondary that might be without Travon Diggs (concussion) again. They gave up 59 and 60 yards to replacement-level receivers Chris Moore and Jaylin Lane last week, so I'm not buying the modest improvement for Dallas on defense recently. Sutton has balled out in close games this year, averaging 101.3 receiving YPG and 120 Air Yards in thrillers against the Chargers, Eagles, and Giants. I'd expect Sean Payton to give Bo Nix a bit more rope after his fourth-quarter comeback and let the QB cook in his second straight home game.

Tyler Allgeier o9.5 Rush ATT (+105 BetMGM)

SGP - Tyler Allgeier 25+ Rush Yds / Falcons o26.5 Pts (+110 DraftKings)

There is a direct correlation between Allgeier's workload and Atlanta's team success on offense. The Falcons have the highest rush-play rate in the NFL and they're facing the worst run defense in the league with Miami visiting. Bijan Robinson should produce as a receiver and outside runner, while Allgeier mixes in during competitive periods and potentially mops up the win in garbage time. The powerful back has a TD in three straight indoor games (2 at home, 1 in Minnesota) and 11 red zone carries in those games, so +135 for Allgeier ATTD is a good parlay leg to consider with Atlanta on the adjusted spread.

Alvin Kamara o3.5 Receptions (+104 FanDuel)

Playable to -110

Let's turn back the clock for a vintage Kamara game in a matchup against the hobbled Bucs, who are on the road in a division game on a short week. The Bucs can stop the run with Vita Vea in the middle, but opponents are passing to backs with great success in this matchup. Kamara's snap count should go up with Kendre Miller (knee) out and his routes run should be higher with elite C Erik McCoy (biceps) done for the year. Spencer Rattler might be more conservative after throwing three picks last week, leading to more checkdowns. Kamara has 15 receptions in his last three home games compared to 8 on the road and he burned the Bucs for 18 catches over his last two meetings with Tampa.

Six-Point Teaser: Patriots -1 / Steelers +9 / Saints +10.5 (+140 DraftKings)

Also playing Steelers +3 / Steelers ML with 0.5 units

Mike Tomlin has extra prep time and is coming off a loss, and is a home underdog, a trifecta of circumstances that has led to a cover rate of 75-80% in recent seasons. Those trends are one thing, but the matchup is also good against a Packers defense that plays a ton of zone against savvy veteran Aaron Rodgers, who has his own narrative in this one. Jordan Love ranks 27th in passer rating when pressured and he'll be under fire at Pittsburgh in primetime with T.J. Watt and company screaming off the edge. The Steelers were embarrassed last Thursday and are unlikely to get blown out by a Packers team that is 0-4 ATS in their last four games.

The Browns offense has almost no chance against the Patriots defense and Drake Maye is red hot, so love that teaser leg. The Bucs have tons of injuries and are on a short week after a physical matchup with Detroit. Teams rarely covered last season after playing Detroit. The Saints have been far more competitive at home and are a division underdog to back.