Week 7 NFL Best Bets

Nate's NFL Bets Sunday Week 7

NFL Bets
October 17, 2025•4 min read

NFL Week 7 Bets

Oronde Gadsden o26.5 Rec Yds (-114 FD)

Gadsen 40+ Rec Yds / 3+ Rec (+200 DK) .5u / Gadsden ATTD (+320 FD) .2u

SGP - Justin Herbert 240+ Pass Yds / 2+ Pass TDs (+145 DK) 1.5u

De'Von Achane u70.5 Rush Yds (-114 FD)

SGP - Achane u70.5 Rush Yds / 25+ Rec Yds (+190 FD) .5u

Parlay: Bears ADJ -1.5 + Lions ADJ -1.5 + Chiefs ADJ -2.5 (+154 DK) .5u

George Pickens o56.5 Rec Yds (-118 MGM)

Jordan Addison o41.5 Rec Yds (-114 FD)

Cam Skattebo o14.5 Rush ATT (+105 MGM) .5u

SGP - Jahmyr Gibbs 80+ Rush + Rec Yds / Lions -2.5 (-105 DK)

Oronde Gadsden o26.5 Rec Yds (-114 FanDuel)

Half-Unit Ladder on Gadsden 3+ Rec / 40+ Rec Yds

Expecting a high-scoring affair at SoFi with a 48.5-point total. Justin Herbert should shred an overrated Colts defense that is dealing with key secondary injuries. Gadsden has ramped up the last few weeks playing way ahead of Dissly and Conklin, reaching 56 snaps and 31 routes last week with 6 catches. Athletic 6-foot-5, 236-pound TE that moves like a receiver, going to be a favorite for Herbert. The Colts play soft zone leaving middle open for his "Stop" Routes. Colts allow 7th-most REC to TE and 5.1 YAC per catch.

SGP - Justin Herbert 240+ Passing Yds / 2+ Passing TDs (+145 DraftKings)

Vidal and Chargers unlikely to run wild again, so more falls on Herbert's shoulders. Swishland projection has him at 252.7 passing yards in a potential shootout with Colts. Colts likely down top CB Charvarius Ward, Kenny Moore is iffy, and Quentin Johnston is coming back. Joe Alt coming back is huge to protect Herbert's blindside and Colts pass rush has been weak. Colts allowing the second-highest % of TDs via the pass this season and 5th-highest % of YDS via the pass.

De'Von Achane u70.5 Rush Yds (-113 FanDuel)

SGP - Achane 25+ Rec Yds / Achane u70.5 Rush Yds (+190 FanDuel)

Huge difference in matchup and conditions after he rushed for 116 at home vs. the Chargers. Now facing a Browns defense allowing 2.4 YPC that has been nails at home for years, and weather is going to be a major factor, limiting Tua's ability to pass deep. Therefore expect Achane to line up as WR consistently catching short passes. He lined up as WR on 55% of snaps at Carolina in Week 5 despite Dolphins building a 17-0 lead. That's been the plan since Tyreek Hill went down. Browns completely bottled him up (10-25 rushing) in a 20-3 loss last year. Achane averaging just 46.6 rushing YPG on road since 2024.

George Pickens o56.5 Rec Yds (-118 BetMGM)

Playable to 64.5 Rec Yds

Another shootout spot for the Cowboys with an implied 55-point total. Washington's secondary is getting burned for the fifth-most explosive plays and Dak Prescott is averaging 312 passing YPG at home since 2023. This opening number is way too low based on the return of CeeDee Lamb (ankle). Pickens could benefit from Lamb drawing more attention. He's established a great rapport with Dak on slant routes, etc. and is no longer depending on deep shots.

Jordan Addison o41.5 Rec Yds (-114 FanDuel)

Playable to 45.5 Rec Yds

Another exploitable line in a plus matchup against a struggling Eagles defense. Quinyon Mitchell (hamstring) looks like he'll play, so Justin Jefferson might draw shadow coverage while Addison gets Adoree Jackson. Addison got benched in 1Q then came alive on game-winning drive in Week 5. Now we could get a post-bye week bump at home, where he's averaged 66 Rec YPG since 2024.

Cam Skattebo o14.5 Rush Attempts (+105 BetMGM)

Playable to 15.5 Rush Attempts

Playing this small with a potential correlation on Giants (+7) to keep it close in Denver. Teams have to establish the run against the Broncos given their elite secondary and pass rush. Denver ranks 24th in DVOA rush defense. Would expect some zone-read plays out of the shotgun with Jaxson Dart and Skattebo sharing carries. The Giants OL is much improved with LT Andrew Thomas back.

DET Parlay / ADJ Lines: Lions -1.5 / Bears -1.5 / Chiefs -2.5 (+154 DraftKings)

SGP - Jahmyr Gibbs 80+ Rush + Rec Yds / Lions -2.5 (-105 DraftKings)

Going conservative on this MNF matchup only because Baker Mayfield is scary good right now, but wouldn't hesitate to ladder up Gibbs production with Lions adjusted to -3.5 or -4.5 since Detroit is in a smash rebound spot against an injury-ravaged team. Lions are 8-0 ATS after a loss since 2023, covering by 10.3 PPG. Baker might struggle against Kelvin Sheppard's scheme and a good pass rush that could negate Detroit's secondary injuries. Gibbs should see more work than Montgomery in this matchup with outside runs and receptions.

betslybland your betssports bettingnfl bettingnflNate Weitzernfl propsNFL Week 7
With 10+ years covering the NFL and NBA for The Boston Globe and ESPN, Nate brings a journalist’s depth of knowledge and an analyst’s precision to the betting world. For the past eight years, he’s been a senior NFL handicapper for TheLines.com, where his sharp reads on sides, totals, and player props have built him a loyal following. Nate’s success starts with his early market entry, identifying soft lines before the public and the books fully adjust, locking in value where others hesitate. He has a keen eye for under-the-radar player prop lines, recognizing inefficiencies days before game day. Like the most successful NFL bettors, Nate blends deep statistical modeling with an unmatched ability to interpret coach interviews, injury reports, and subtle scheme changes that can swing a game — or a bet. If you want disciplined, data-driven bets with the kind of detail only a seasoned pro can provide, Nate Weitzer is exactly who you want in your corner this NFL season.

Nate Weitzer

With 10+ years covering the NFL and NBA for The Boston Globe and ESPN, Nate brings a journalist’s depth of knowledge and an analyst’s precision to the betting world. For the past eight years, he’s been a senior NFL handicapper for TheLines.com, where his sharp reads on sides, totals, and player props have built him a loyal following. Nate’s success starts with his early market entry, identifying soft lines before the public and the books fully adjust, locking in value where others hesitate. He has a keen eye for under-the-radar player prop lines, recognizing inefficiencies days before game day. Like the most successful NFL bettors, Nate blends deep statistical modeling with an unmatched ability to interpret coach interviews, injury reports, and subtle scheme changes that can swing a game — or a bet. If you want disciplined, data-driven bets with the kind of detail only a seasoned pro can provide, Nate Weitzer is exactly who you want in your corner this NFL season.

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