Nate's NFL Bets Sunday Week 17
NFL Week 17 Bets
Brian Thomas Jr. o45.5 Rec Yds (-114 DraftKings)
Ashton Jeanty o13.5 Longest Rush (-110 BetMGM) 1.5u
Jeanty 60+ Rush Yds / Raiders +3.5 (+100 DraftKings)
Juwan Johnson o44.5 Rec Yds (-118 MGM)
James Cook o12.5 Rec Yds (-111 DraftKings)
Cook 90+ Rush + Rec Yds / Bills ML (+135 DraftKings) .5u
Brian Thomas Jr. o45.5 Rec Yds (-114 DraftKings)
Playable to 47.5 Rec Yds
Going to buy low on Thomas Jr. who has been struggling most of the season and just got shut down (2-18) by Pat Surtain and the Broncos. Now Sauce Gardner (calf) is set to return for the Colts, but he might not be healthy enough to shadow BTJ throughout the game and Jakobi Meyers has been better for the Jags lately. Trevor Lawrence has been sharp, the Colts pass defense has been awful, and this game has a 49-point implied total in a dome.
Ashton Jeanty o13.5 Longest Rush (-110 BetMGM)
SGP - Jeanty 60+ Rush Yds / Raiders +3.5 (+100 DraftKings)
If the Raiders establish Jeanty against a league-worst run defense, they should have enough success to win, or avoid a loss by margin. Both teams are tanking for draft position, but Pete Carroll is likely to go for the win at home and the Raiders won't get Kolton Miller back, but the Giants best OL (Andrew Thomas) is also out. Regardless, the Giants allow a league-high 6.2 YPC on the road and I'd expect Jeanty to break at least one big run on a high volume of carries.
Juwan Johnson o44.5 Rec Yds (-118 BetMGM)
Playable to 47.5 Rec Yds
The Saints should use a high pass-play rate against a Titans defense that is great against the run and awful on the back end, allowing 75% of opponent yards via the pass over their last three games. Johnson and Chris Olave (back) are the top targets for Tyler Shough by far given the injury situation and Olave is questionable. With Taysom Hill running more, Johnson ran more routes last week and turned a 21% TPRR rate into 8-89 receiving. The Titans have allowed 40+ rec yds to 6 of the last 7 tight ends they've faced.
James Cook o12.5 Rec Yds (-111 DraftKings)
SGP - Cook 90+ Rush + Rec Yds / Bills ML (+135 DraftKings)
With Jalen Carter (shoulders) back the Eagles might be tougher to beat on the ground, but Cook remains the focal point of this offense, especially with freezing rain forecasted throughout this game. Expect Joe Brady to scheme Cook the ball in space with a couple of creative pass plays, and he could break a long one against a defense yielding the second-most YPR (10.1) to RBs. Love the Bills (-1.5) to handle business at home against an Eagles offense that's been terrible most of the season, especially against secondaries that play good zone coverage. Buffalo's pass defense is among the best in the NFL this year and Josh Allen is 28-4 at home over the past four seasons.
