Week 16 NFL Best Bets

Nate's NFL Bets Sunday Week 16

NFL Bets
December 19, 2025•2 min read

NFL Week 16 Bets

Adonai Mitchell o39.5 Rec Yds (-115 BetMGM)

Joe Burrow o257.5 Pass Yds (-111 DraftKings)

Ja'Marr Chase o25.5 Longest Reception (-110 DraftKings) .5u

Aaron Jones o15.5 Rec Yds (-112 DraftKings)

Mike Evans o4.5 Receptions (+110 BetMGM)

Jacoby Brissett o1.5 Passing TD (-120 FanDuel)

Brissett 100+ Passing Yds each half (-115 FD) .3u

Adonai Mitchell o39.5 Rec Yds (-115 BetMGM)

Playable to 43.5 Rec Yds

Clearly the top target for a Jets team that lost Mason Taylor (neck) this week and could abandon the run with Breece Hall hurting. Mitchell has a 50% Air Yards Share since Garrett Wilson went down and is averaging 105 Air Yards with the Jets. The Saints are 23rd in DVOA against the pass and 31st against No. 1 receivers.

Ja'Marr Chase o25.5 Longest Reception (-110 DraftKings)

Joe Burrow o257.5 passing yards

Chase is a good bet for a big play or two or three against a Dolphins team that ranks 30th in DVOA pass defense and is particularly vulnerable in the slot. Tee Higgins (concussions) is trending in after logging a full practice, so we're adding Joe Burrow to light up this vulnerable secondary as the Bengals likely bounce back with a big outing after their rough showing last week.

Aaron Jones o15.5 Rec Yds (-112 DraftKings)

Playable to 17.5 Rec Yds

Jones should have a much better day than Jordan Mason in a plus matchup against a Giants defense that struggles to defend versatile backs outside the tackles. The G-Men are allowing 40.4 receiving YPG to RBs over their last six games and Jones is averaging 3.2 catches for 20.4 YPG in his last five, removing a 31-0 blowout over Washington. Jones is averaging 24% targets per route in his last two outings and JJ McCarthy should take the easy money on some checkdowns to his versatile back.

Mike Evans o4.5 Receptions (+110 BetMGM)

Evans o57.5 Rec Yds (-135)

This market got hit quickly after opening at +125 and with some books projecting Evans as low as 55.5 receiving yards at even money. Clearly the Bucs needed their alpha WR back and he caught 6 of 12 targets in a tougher matchup last week against A.J. Terrell, a shadow corner. The Panthers don't use Jaycee Horn as a shadow corner and they've been torched by No. 1 receivers as a result. They also play a ton of Cover-1 and Evans destroys that single-high look. He's averaging 8 catches for 107.5 YPG over his last two outings against Carolina.

Jacoby Brissett o1.5 Passing TDs (-120 FanDuel)

Brissett 100+ Yds Each Half (-115)

The Falcons are in a letdown spot after beating the Bucs and their defense hasn't traveled well. They allow 7.7 YPA on the road compared to 5.2 at home, and have given up 17 passing TDs on the road with zero rushing TDs allowed. The Cardinals have no traditional RBs left and Brissett has attempted 40-plus passes in six straight. Volume should carry him over most of his props.

betslybland your betssports bettingnfl bettingnflNate Weitzernfl propsNFL Week 16
With 10+ years covering the NFL and NBA for The Boston Globe and ESPN, Nate brings a journalist’s depth of knowledge and an analyst’s precision to the betting world. For the past eight years, he’s been a senior NFL handicapper for TheLines.com, where his sharp reads on sides, totals, and player props have built him a loyal following. Nate’s success starts with his early market entry, identifying soft lines before the public and the books fully adjust, locking in value where others hesitate. He has a keen eye for under-the-radar player prop lines, recognizing inefficiencies days before game day. Like the most successful NFL bettors, Nate blends deep statistical modeling with an unmatched ability to interpret coach interviews, injury reports, and subtle scheme changes that can swing a game — or a bet. If you want disciplined, data-driven bets with the kind of detail only a seasoned pro can provide, Nate Weitzer is exactly who you want in your corner this NFL season.

Nate Weitzer

With 10+ years covering the NFL and NBA for The Boston Globe and ESPN, Nate brings a journalist’s depth of knowledge and an analyst’s precision to the betting world. For the past eight years, he’s been a senior NFL handicapper for TheLines.com, where his sharp reads on sides, totals, and player props have built him a loyal following. Nate’s success starts with his early market entry, identifying soft lines before the public and the books fully adjust, locking in value where others hesitate. He has a keen eye for under-the-radar player prop lines, recognizing inefficiencies days before game day. Like the most successful NFL bettors, Nate blends deep statistical modeling with an unmatched ability to interpret coach interviews, injury reports, and subtle scheme changes that can swing a game — or a bet. If you want disciplined, data-driven bets with the kind of detail only a seasoned pro can provide, Nate Weitzer is exactly who you want in your corner this NFL season.

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