Nate's NFL Bets Sunday Week 14
NFL Week 14 Bets
Breece Hall o15.5 Longest Rush (-105 MGM)
Hall o69.5 Rush Yds (-115 MGM)
James Cook 90+ Rush Yds / Bills ML (-110 DK)
Cook 25+ Rush Yds in each Half (-260 FD) 1.5u
Joe Burrow o4.5 Rush Yds (-128 FD)
Zach Ertz o36.5 Rec Yds (-112 DK)
Kareem Hunt o32.5 Rush Yds (-112 FD)
Lamar Jackson o25.5 Rush Yds (-110) .5u
Breece Hall o69.5 Rush Yds (-115 MGM)
Hall o15.5 Yards Longest Rush (-105 MGM)
The Jets have found something of an identity over the past month and it involves using Hall as a workhorse. Coming off a 90% snap rate against Atlanta, he draws another good matchup at home against a Dolphins defense that yields the fourth-most rushing YPG this season and hasn't played in cold weather since they got crushed in Cleveland in October. Hall averaged 5.8 YPC in Miami earlier this season and Justin Fields "stole" 71 rushing yards in that game. Tyrod Taylor is a more traditional QB who should hand off early and often in nasty weather.
James Cook 90+ Rush Yds / Bills ML (-110 DraftKings)
Cook 25+ Rush Yds in each half (-260 FD) 1.5u
Speaking of rough weather, we have a snow bowl in Buffalo! Definite snow means a healthy dose of James Cook, who is coming off a massive workload in Pittsburgh last week. Cook ripped off a 65-yard TD in a snow game against the 49ers last season and hit the seventh-fastest speed by a ball carrier on the seasons, so clearly he knows how to find traction in those conditions. The Bengals rank 30th in DVOA rush defense and could get Spencer Brown back in addition to Dion Dawkins, who is returning.
Joe Burrow o4.5 Rush Yds (-128 FanDuel)
Playable to 6.5 Rush Yds
This number is crazy low given Burrow's sneaky athleticism and the current situation for the Bills defensive front. Joey Bosa and LB Terell Bernard are out, further weakening a bad run defense and inconsistent pass rush. Burrow averaged 2.5 carries for 4.5 YPC last season and seemed to be past any mobility issues in a good second half at Baltimore last Thursday.
Zach Ertz o36.5 Rec Yds (-112 DraftKings)
Playable to 39.5
Washington gets Jayden Daniels (elbow) back and that shouldn't hurt Zach Ertz in this matchup. Minnesota's blitz-heavy tendencies should force Daniels to get rid of it over the middle at times. Minnesota allows a healthy 9.6 yards per catch to TEs and Ertz has been superior reliable while drawing 21 targets over the past two weeks. Getting Terry McLaurin (quad) back has created much more space underneath for the veteran.
Justin Jefferson o5.5 Receptions (+122 FanDuel) .5u
Playable to +110
An intriguing basement buy on one of the best receivers in the game who is currently WR24 in fantasy due to horrendous QB play. J.J. McCarthy has still funelled 9 targets per game to Jefferson over his last four starts, which came in some tough matchups. Washington's pass defense is among the worst in the league and they play a soft zone that should create huge windows for McCarthy to find his unhappy top target.
Lamar Jackson o25.5 Rush Yds (-110 MGM) .5u
Playable to 27.5 Rush Yds
Another buy-low to consider, Jackson is starting to round back into rushing form after dealing with multiple injuries. The Steelers aggressive defense has given him issues in the past, leading to a high scramble rate and 22+ yards in six straight meetings. Pittsburgh's aging defense got crushed on the ground last week and will likely to divest extra resources toward stopping Derrick Henry, giving Lamar more running lanes.
Kareem Hunt o32.5 Rush Yds (-114 FanDuel)
Playable to 34.5
It's expected to be below freezing in Kansas City and Hunt is a bruising back that no one is going to want to tackle in those conditions. Hunt should keep playing over Isiah Pacheco (PCL) who is not as well suited for a matchup against Houston's fast defense. Teams tend to run up the middle against Houston to soften up that elite pass rush. The Texans have allowed 55-plus rush yards to lead backs in five of their last six games. Even with a few offensive linemen out, I'd trust Hunt to get here on volume.
