Nate's NFL Bets Sunday Week 13

NFL Week 13 Bets

Michael Wilson o54.5 Rec Yds (-115 BetMGM)

Ladd McConkey o51.5 Rec Yds (-114 FanDuel)

McConkey 60+ Rec Yds (+128 FD) .5u

Cam Ward o201.5 Pass Yds (-114 FanDuel)

Ward o218.5 Passing + Rushing Yards (-114 FanDuel)

Trevor Lawrence o4.5 Rush ATT (-105 BetMGM) .5u

Lawrence ATTD (+300 DraftKings) .2u

John Metchie III o36.5 Rec Yds (-111 DraftKings)

Jayden Higgins o3.5 Receptions (+114 FanDuel)

Kenneth Gainwell o26.5 Rush Yds (-114 FanDuel)

Michael Wilson o54.5 Receiving Yds (-115 BetMGM)

Playable to 57.5 Receiving Yds

Marvin Harrison Jr. has been limited in practice and it would make sense for the Cardinals to play it safe with him after his appendectomy. Only one book has put up Wilson's props since his volume (25 catches, 33 targets) has been insane the past two games without MHJ. His role should be solid regardless since the Cardinals are No. 1 in pass rate over expectation with Jacoby Brissett, who should get it out quick against a blitz-heavy Bucs defense that allows the third-most YAC this season.

Ladd McConkey o51.5 Receiving Yds (-114 FanDuel)

Playable to 54.5 Receiving Yds

The Chargers are almost sure to bounce back after getting embarrassed in Jacksonville prior to their bye week. Give Justin Herbert a bit more time, and he can pepper his favorite WR with targets in this matchup. Vegas allows the fourth-most FPPG to slot WRs and ranks 21st in pressure rate despite having Maxx Crosby. The Raiders sit in predictable zone coverages and rank 31st in PFF coverage grade as a secondary. The Bolts have scored 20+ while winning five straight division games and McConkey is averaging 69 YPG in those contests.

Cam Ward o201.5 Passing Yds (-114 FanDuel)

Ward o218.5 Passing + Rushing Yards (-114 FanDuel)

Ward and the Titans have looked much better off a bye week where interim HC Mike McCoy had time to install some of his principles. Ward is averaging 26 completions for 255 YPG in relatively competitive losses to the Texans and Seahawks, two of the best defenses in the NFL. The Jaguars are solid defensively, but are also the biggest "pass-funnel" in terms of forcing opponent's to gain yards through the air. They yield 78% of yardage via the pass on the road. Ward has a better rapport with some of his new receivers, such as former college teammate Xavier Restrepo, then he did early in his rookie year with vets like Calvin Ridley. For receiving props, I would consider TE Gunnar Helm (o26.5 yards) or slot-man Chimere Dike (o33.5 yards) in this matchup.

Trevor Lawrence o4.5 Rush ATT (-105 BetMGM)

ATTD +300 .2u

Liam Coen clearly made the run game a point of emphasis when the Jaguars came out of their bye four weeks ago. Lawrence is averaging six carries for 24 YPG since then, with a good portion of those totes coming on designed runs. The Titans run defense is much better with Jeffrey Simmons and T'Vondre Sweat back, so I'd expect more creative runs and dropbacks rather than traditional handoffs between the tackles. Lawrence is also a big weapon at the goal line with juicy odds to find the end zone for the fourth time in five games.

John Metchie III o36.5 Rec Yds (-111 DraftKings)

Playable to 38.5

Tyrod Taylor gives the Jets passing attack some juice compared to Justin Fields. Metchie III is clearly his No. 1 target in terms of reliable production, with AD Mitchell going downfield and TE Mason Taylor making a few plays over the middle. Those three guys combined for 19 of 28 targets in Taylor's start last week at Baltimore and Metchie ran 100% of the routes. The Falcons just lost NCB Billy Bowman (Achilles) for the season and shifted Dee Alford inside, and he gave up a 6-41 receiving line to Devaughn Vele in New Orleans. Metchie has a solid floor in this matchup.

Jayden Higgins o3.5 Receptions (+114 FanDuel)

Playable to -110

The Texans opened the year with a short leash on some of these rookie WRs, but they've let Higgins fly as the clear No. 2 option in recent weeks. He's second behind Nico Collins in almost every metric and Collins could draw shadow coverage from Sauce Gardner this week. Higgins has 4+ catches and 90+ Air Yards in four of his last six games, with the exceptions coming against Denver and Seattle. The Texans are struggling to run the ball and the Colts force the second-highest percentage of yards through the air, with their elite offense often forcing pass-heavy scripts.

Kenneth Gainwell o26.5 Rush Yds (-114 FanDuel)

Playable to 28.5

A timeshare between Gainwell and Jaylen Warren seems to be here to stay. Warren (ankle) was removed from the injury report but still split snaps evenly with Gainwell while the tandem combined for 186 rushing yards against the Bears last week. Now they get another juicy matchup against Buffalo's 31st-ranked run defense by EPA. The Bills have allowed 169 rushing YPG at 5.2 YPC over their last 3 games and could once again be without leading LB Terrel Bernard (elbow). Adding the receiving yards makes sense given the fact that Gainwell led the team in targets per route run last week and posted a 74% Route Rate the previous two weeks.