Nate's NFL Bets Sunday Week 12

NFL Week 12 Bets

Jalen Hurts o204.5 Pass Yds (-118 MGM)

Patrick Mahomes o22.5 Rush Yds (-114 FD)

Xavier Worthy 50+ Rec Yds (+140 DK) .5u

TreVeyon Henderson o14.5 Longest Rush (-110 MGM)

TreVeyon Henderson o52.5 Rush Yds (-114 FD) .5u

Brock Wright o20.5 Rec Yds (-114 FD)

Jahmyr Gibbs o105.5 Rush + Rec Yds (-114 FD) .5u

SGP - Gibbs 100+ Rush + Rec Yds / DET -2.5 (+108 FD) .5u

Saints -1.5 (-112 FD)

Seahawks ML / Lions ML / Chiefs ML Parlay (-111 DK) 1.5u

Jalen Hurts o204.5 Passing Yds (-118 BetMGM)

Playable to 207.5 Passing Yds

The Eagles offense has looked anemic over their past two games, but now they face a Cowboys secondary that can't stop anything downfield. The Cowboys run defense, however, is looking much improved with Quinnen Williams and Logan Wilson added, and the Eagles run offense could also continue to struggle without Lane Johnson (foot). Hurts has been dared to pass before, often by divisional opponents, and delivered with big lines. His receivers are talented and hungry for passing volume and the Cowboys offense is capable of hanging a big number at home, even against Philly's elite defense.

Patrick Mahomes o22.5 Rushing Yds (-114 FanDuel)

Mahomes 15+ Rush Yds / Chiefs ML (+102 DK)

This is basically a playoff game for the Chiefs and we know Mahomes has a long history of using his legs in the postseason. He's averaging 32 YPG over the past two playoff runs and 32.2 YPG on the ground at home this season, so this number is deflated coming off tough road losses at Buffalo and Denver. The Broncos defense is truly elite containing scrambles and the Colts have barely faced anyone who can scramble, but allowed 30-plus yards to Bo Nix and Justin Herbert when they did. I'm pretty confident in the Chiefs avoiding a third straight loss with Daniel Jones facing an aggressive defense at Arrowhead, so a parlay makes sense here.

Xavier Worthy o40.5 Receiving Yds (-114 DraftKings)

Worthy 50+ Rec Yds (+140 DK) .5u

Take a shot on Worthy and Mahomes finally connecting on a deep ball in this one. Sauce Gardner is unlikely to shadow Worthy and the Colts play a ton of man coverage in third and fourth downs. The Chiefs have struggled to beat man coverage and Worthy is their best weapon against it because of his elite speed, earning a 27% target rate when defenses go man.

TreVeyon Henderson o14.5 Longest Rush (-114 FanDuel)

Henderson o52.5 Rush Yds (-114) .5u

While Rhamondre Stevenson (toe) is due back, Henderson has definitely earned a larger share of the backfield opportunities going forward. The rookie has a much higher explosive rating at 5.9 YPC for 84.8 YPG over his last four outings. The longest rush is my preferred play against the worst run defense in the league, which is still missing DE Trey Hendrickson. He broke huge gains against Cleveland and Tampa Bay, two excellent run defenses, and the Bengals are last in every category.

Chase Brown u59.5 Rush Yds (-113 DraftKings)

Playable to 56.5 Rush Yds

Opportunity doesn't necessarily equal success in the NFL. Samaje Perine's absence has bumped this number up, but the Steelers are still likely to shut Brown down, as a rusher...I would be fine taking Over on his 3.5 receptions or 20.5 receiving yards in an expected trailing script. The last time Pittsburgh was home, their defense shut down Jonathan Taylor and the Colts offense. They also bottled up Quinshon Judkins at home and allow just 22% of yardage via the rush at home (Best in the NFL). Cam Heyward is the best DT in the NFL per PFF grading. The Steelers are giving up just 3.5 YPC over their last three games and the Bengals will be fine with Flacco dropping back 40-plus times in another shootout.

Brock Wright o20.5 Rec Yds (-114 FanDuel)

Playable to 23.5 Rec Yds

With Sam LaPorta (back) done for the season the Lions will move forward with Wright as their primary receiving TE. This is a very low number for a man in that role who logged 83% of the snaps and 64% of the routes in a disastrous Jared Goff game at Philadelphia. Of course he only caught 2 balls for 7 yards in that debacle. But now he gets a Giants defense that can't cover over the middle, or stop the run, opening up play-action opportunities. Consider a sprinkle on his ATTD (+240) market.

Jahmyr Gibbs o105.5 Rush + Rec Yds (-114 FanDuel)

Gibbs 100+ Rush + Rec Yds / DET -2.5 (+108)

We shouldn't be scared of Detroit winning this game by 3, or by 7 really, against Jameis Winston and an injury-ravaged Giants team. The parlay could be adjusted to get Gibbs down to 80+ yards and the Lions to cover -5.5 at close to even money. Gibbs has been getting more opportunities the last two weeks with Dan Campbell calling plays and averaging 176 scrimmage YPG. The Giants run defense is particularly bad when it comes to containing runs off tackle, so this is a better matchup for Gibbs than David Montgomery, although both should eat.

Saints -1.5 (-112 FD)

Grab this under 2 where available or add the Saints to a parlay. This is a pretty simple handicap: Kirk Cousins can't throw anymore, plus he has no real receivers to target, and the Saints defense is underrated, coming off a bye, and home against a hated rival.

ML Parlay: Chiefs ML + Lions ML + Seahawks ML (-111)

Add the Ravens (-1000) to handle the Jets at home to get slightly plus odds on this conservative parlay. The Chiefs are the only leg to truly worry about, but we've covered how Steve Spagnuolo's defense matches up against Daniel Jones and the Colts, who we saw fold at Pittsburgh in one of their rare tough outdoor games. Arrowhead is arguably the biggest home field advantage in the NFL and Mahomes has never lost three consecutive starts.