Nate's NFL Bets Thanksgiving Week 13
NFL Week 13 Thanksgiving Bets
Jordan Love o9.5 Rush Yds (-113 DK)
Jahmyr Gibbs u111.5 Rush + Rec Yds (-114 DK)
Travis Kelce o57.5 Rec Yds (-114 DK)
Travis Kelce 5+ Rec / 60+ Yds (+118 DK)
Kareem Hunt o32.5 Rush Yds (-113 DK)
Hunt ATTD (+155 bet365) .5u
Mike Gesicki o33.5 Rec Yds (-114 FD)
Gesicki 40+ Rec Yds (+125 FD) .5u
Teaser: Packers +8.5 / Cowboys +9.5 / Eagles -1
Jordan Love o9.5 Rushing Yds (-113 DraftKings)
Playable to 11.5 Rushing Yds
The Lions run man coverage at the second-highest rate (35%) and that leaves them vulnerable to scramble. In fact 8 of the last 9 QBs to face Detroit have posted 12-plus rushing yards. Love said he wants to run more this season and his scramble rate is up from 2.6% to 4.7% after an injury-plagued 2024 season. With Josh Jacobs (knee) banged up the Packers could throw it more. Love has shredded Detroit's pass defense in recent years.
Jahmyr Gibbs u111.5 Rush + Rec Yds (-114 DraftKings)
Playable to u108.5 Rush + Rec Yds
This takes some balls after Gibbs erupted for 279 yards last week, but the Packers are worlds better defensively than the Giants. Green Bay allows the fewest explosive plays this season (2.2%) and shut down Gibbs in the opener. He's averaging just 42.3 rushing YPG and 24 receiving YPG over his last three meetings with Green Bay. The Packers should game plan specifically for Gibbs after his huge game and we've seen his production oscillate with the Vikings (25 rushing yards) shutting him down and the Eagles (39 rushing yards) bottling him up after his huge game at Washington.
Travis Kelce o57.5 Receiving Yds (-114 DraftKings)
SGP - Kelce 5+ Rec / 60+ Rec Yds (+118 DK)
Rashee Rice (hamstring) is expected to play on Thanksgiving but is a re-injury risk and backup TE Noah Gray (concussion) is likely out. Kelce played a season-high 84 snaps last week with the Chiefs season on the line. With Rice active, Kelce has actually been more productive though, and the Cowboys will have to account for Rice bigtime. Dallas plays a high rate of zone coverage and Kelce/Mahomes eat against zone. Dallas has been good against the run lately, forcing a pass-funnel from opposing offenses.
Kareem Hunt o32.5 Rushing Yds (-113 DraftKings)
Hunt ATTD (+155 Bet365) .5u
Value shopping here with Isiah Pacheco (MCL) due back on Thanksgiving. There's no way the Chiefs will abandon Hunt as their lead back after he's saved their dormant offense the past few weeks. Hunt is nearly unstoppable on short-yardage plays and the Chiefs lack a creative element to their offense right now. Dallas has looked great against the run while facing the pathetic Raiders and Eagles rushing attacks lately, but the Cowboys are still 29th in DVOA rush defense. They gave up 79 yards to Emari DeMercado and 111 yards to J.K. Dobbins before their bye week.
Mike Gesicki o33.5 Rec Yds (-114 FanDuel)
Gesicki 40+ Rec Yds (+125 FanDuel)
Joe Burrow and Ja'Marr Chase are back and Tee Higgins (concussion) is out for this game. The Ravens should bracket Chase whenever possible since he's torched them in recent meetings. In 5 games with Higgins out last year, Gesicki averaged 62.4 receiving YPG. He only went for 4-30 receiving at Baltimore but drew 9 targets in that game. Gesicki doubled Noah Fant in routes run last week in his first action since Week 6 and should ramp up more in Week 13.
Teaser: Packers +8.5 / Cowboys +9.5 / Eagles -1 (+140)
The Packers have an elite defense and Jared Goff has been super shaky against pressure lately. The Cowboys defense is good enough to keep it close with a struggling Chiefs offense. Dallas is very good at home and the Chiefs have a rough injury report after their OT win last week. The Eagles defense should dominate against Caleb Williams and the pretender Bears. Can't trust Philly to win by margin, but they should win on Black Friday.
