Nate's NFL Best Bets Saturday Week 18
NFL Sunday Week 18 Bets
Bijan Robinson o82.5 Rush Yds (-111 DraftKings)
Bijan 20+ Rush Attempts (+126 DK) .5u
Joe Burrow 225+ Pass Yds / Bengals ML (-103 FanDuel) 1.5u
Burrow o235.5 Pass Yds (-114 FanDuel)
Teaser: Bengals -1.5 / Giants +9.5 / GB @ MIN: u43.5 (+140)
DJ Moore o34.5 Rec Yds (-114 FanDuel)
Leans: Jaylen Wright Rushing / Evan Engram Receiving
Bijan Robinson o82.5 Rush Yds (-111 DraftKings)
20+ Rush Attempts (+126)
With Bijan chasing the scrimmage yards record we can likely rely on a massive workload in the regular season finale. He's averaged 27.8 carries / targets over his last 5 overall and 128 rushing YPG on 21.7 attempts over his last three home games. That includes 86 yards against Seattle's No. 1 rush defense, so I'm not that scared of a Saints defense that is solid against the run, but allows 4.5 YPC on the road compared to 3.7 at home, and gave up 85 yards to Tony Pollard last week. Raheem Morris is coaching for his job and will likely feed Bijan in the hopes he saves it.
Joe Burrow o235.5 Passing Yds (-114 FanDuel)
SGP - Burrow 225+ Passing Yds / Bengals ML (-103 FD) 1.5u
Backing the Bengals in teasers and moneyline parlays with the Browns shorthanded on both sides, as their two stud rookies (Schwesinger and Fannin) wont' play. Burrow is on a crazy heater and has his full complement of weapons at home, which is key when fading the Browns defense. In 4 career home games vs. Cleveland he averages 294.8 YPG on a 69% completion rate, compared to 184.8 YPG in 5 at Cleveland. His last three duds against Cleveland also came in the first month of the season and he's been insanely good in December / January throughout his career.
DJ Moore o34.5 Rec Yds (-114 FanDuel)
Playable to 37.5 Rec Yds
Luther Burden III will be a popular play after his breakout game and Moore should hold steady at this number considering he went for just 7 yards in an insane shootout at San Francisco. He was sick last week though, yet still ran 100% of the routes and remains a fixture of the passing attack with Rome Odunze (foot) out. Caleb Williams is starting to push it downfield (7.9 YPA last 3) and the Lions secondary is extremely vulnerable due to injuries. Expect Ben Johnson to exact some revenge on his former team by moving Moore around the formation creatively.
Leans (no props available yet):
Bo Nix Passing + Evan Engram Receiving
Bo Nix should have success against a Chargers defense that is likely resting starters on the road. Justin Herbert is out and the LAC offense should get dominated with some OL potentially sitting too, leading to tons of possession for the Broncos. Like Nix to hit some of his underneath targets en route to 200+ yards and potentially top 1.5 Passing TDs (+104 FD) despite the Chargers solid metrics against passing attacks in the red zone. Engram makes sense as a reliable target since LAC is 27th in DVOA against TEs and the most likely guys out on D are Derwin James and Denzel Perryman.
Jaylen Wright Rushing
Love the Dolphins rushing attack against what's been a bottom-3 Patriots run defense without Milton Williams and Khyiris Tonga. Christian Barmore is in the news now with assault chargers and the Pats are basically locked into their seed. With De'Von Achane (shoulder) likely out, Wright and Ollie Gordon should split carries in a run-heavy offense. Wright has shown much more than Gordon and is my preferred angle playable up to 49.5 rush yards with +160 ATTD odds currently available at bet365.
