Josh's TNF Bets Week 8

TNF Bets Week 8

Kimani Vidal O 59.5 Rush Yds (-108 FD)

Jordan Mason O 52.5 Rush Yds (-112 FD)

TJ Hockenson TD (+220 FD | .5u)

Aaron Jones O 13.5 Rec Yds (-108 DK)

Aaron Jones 25+ Rec Yds (+225 DK | .5u)

Kimani Vidal O 59.5 Rush Yds (-108 FD)

Playable to 67.5 Rush Yds

Haskins is OUT and the Chargers O Line is finally healthy. Tackles Joe Alt and Trey Pipkins III are back and we know that Jim Harbaugh would prefer to establish the run rather than throw 50 times like he's been forced to do recently. Factor in the matchup as well. Minnesota ranks 23rd vs the run and 2nd vs the pass according to defensive EPA. It's a get-right game for the Chargers rushing offense.

Jordan Mason O 52.5 Rush Yds (-112 FD)

Playable to 59.5 Rush Yds

Aaron Jones Sr. is back from his 5-week absence following an injury vs Atlanta in Week 2. I believe that is pushing Jordan Mason's rushing prop line down further than it should. I'm banking on the fact that Mason was always primed to be the team's leading rusher, with Jones doing his work in the passing game in addition to 6-7 carries. That still leaves 13-or-so carries for Mason vs the Chargers rush defense, which ranks 29th vs the run. Conversely, LAC ranks a much more respectable 13th vs the pass.

TJ Hockenson TD (+220 FD | .5u)

Playable to +200

I don't always play TD props... but when I do... I prefer TEs with unrealized TD potential coming into a game vs a team that allows the 3rd highest TD rate to the position. Hockenson had 3 red zone targets last week vs Philly, including one that he caught, but was called back due to a sketchy penalty flag. Give me this TNF matchup with LAC to make up for last week.

Aaron Jones O 13.5 Rec Yds (-108 DK)

Aaron Jones 25+ Rec Yds (+225 DK | .5u)

He's back and ready to catch some Carson Wentz targets. LAC is a good pass defense, but much better limiting TEs and WRs. They allow the 14th most rec yds to RBs, but the 12th fewest rec yds to WRs and the 7th fewest rec yds to TEs. Like I alluded to in the Mason write up, Jones was already splitting snaps with his "backup" even before he got hurt. In his only full game this season vs CHI, he saw 50% snap, but still ran 45% of the routes from the RB spot. I like that trend to continue tonight, with Mason seeing closer to a 55-60% snap share.