Josh's TNF Bets Week 7

TNF Bets Week 7

DK Metcalf O 65.5 Rec Yds (-111 DK)

DK Metcalf 90+ Rec Yds (+227 DK | .5u)

Joe Flacco O 22.5 Pass Completions (-128 FD)

CIN ML (+220 FD | .5u)

SGP: CIN ML / DK Metcalf 60+ Rec Yds / Flacco 24+ Pass Completions (+850 DK | .2u)

CIN ML (+220 FD | .5u)

Let's start with this one since it's the backbone for most of the rest of these props. The sharps have clearly kept this game under a TD spread by consistently hitting any CIN +6 lines that pop up and immediately pushing them down to 5.5. The books have listened and won't likely be moving this line unless a verified betting group drops big on it. I'd be okay taking the 5.5 but I don't often bet sides so I'm just playing high upside here for a reduced amount.

As for the parlay, well, I like all those bets and we get a little negative correlation with the Metcalf bet alongside the CIN ML. Let's ride.

DK Metcalf O 65.5 Rec Yds (-111 DK)

I like the fact that DK's number is remaining under 70 yards despite such a cupcake matchup with Cincy. The Bungals allow the 3rd most receiving yards in the league, and the 6th most on the outside where DK is always lined up. As you can tell from these bets, I like the value on Cincy in this one, meaning I think the Steelers are going to have to throw a bit more than the market is considering, keeping people away from a lot of receiving yards for Steelers players. With Calvin Austin out once again, PIT is without its other deep threat, making it even more likely we see a number of deep shots in DK's direction.

Joe Flacco O 22.5 Pass Completions (-128 FD)

Playable to 23.5 Pass Completions

Hear me out on this - what if Joe Flacco isn't as bad as he appeared on the Browns because his offense wasn't very good outside of Judkins? With another week to prepare with his top target, Ja'Marr Chase, I like him to dink and dunk his way to a lot of short completions. He actually had a solid success rate on passing downs in his first start last week and I think he builds on it in this one. I still don't think Cincy will be able to run, regardless of whether or not I think the Steelers' defense has been slightly overrated so far. They will still bring the 2nd best sack rate in the league to this one and Flacco will have to get rid of it early.