Josh's TNF Bets Week 6 (Pt. 2)

TNF Bets Week 6 (Pt. 2)

Bellinger 30+ (+300 FD | .5u)

Jahan Dotson 10+ Rec Yds (-112 FD)

Jahan Dotson 20+ Rec Yds (+220 FD | .5u)

Daniel Bellinger

I'm just leaning further into the Bellinger angle. Same write up as before.

If all you look at is matchup data, any type of over on a TE will seem silly when you see Philly's defense ranked in the top 5 vs TEs for many key metrics. With a 7.5 yard receiving prop, however, those metrics can kick rocks. Bellinger was on the field for 70% of the snaps and saw 4 targets last week without Malik Nabers, and now Darius Slayton is out this week as well.

Philly should be in their 2-high safety look most of the game, leaving the underneath game available for Dart's dink and dunks. I expect Philly to give NYG the short crossing routes to TEs and WRs so I'm likely going to play an over on a few more Giants receivers and even the other TE Theo Johnson. But this bet gives us too much of an edge not to get it down right away. Plus, the movement we're seeing on Bellinger's lines (opened at 5.5 rec yards on BetMGM) should help keep other NYG receiving props reasonable so there's less of a rush to get to those.

Jahan Dotson

The model has Dotson at 2 targets / 1 reception / 12 receiving yards. So I really like the 10+ yards line. He has an average depth of target of 17.6 yards, though, so I also like the ladder to 20+ for 1/2 a unit. Philly is going 3 WR a ton the last 2 weeks, upping Dotson's snap share to 70%. He's also seen 3+ targets in 3 of 5 games so far. It all adds up to this being a solid ladder if he catches 1 of 2-3 targets this game. It may be sweaty, but I'm going to keep playing these types of odds all year for the longterm EV!