Josh's TNF Bets Week 1

TNF Week 1 Bets

Saquon Barkley O 12.5 Rec Yards (-115 Bet365)

Saquon Barkley 20+ Rec Yards (+165 Bet365)

Javonte Williams U 39.5 Rush Yards (-115 Bet365)

Saquon Barkley O 12.5 Rec Yards (-115 Bet365)

Playable to 13.5

Saquon Barkley 20+ Rec Yards (+165 Bet365)

Playable to +135

I'm buying into the coach speak from new Offensive Coordinator Kevin Patullo who said he's "...looking to incorporate more passing targets to running back Saquon Barkley to diversify the offense and create mismatches."

Combined with Dallas's awful defense, which allowed the 6th most rec yds to RBs, I like this as a small ladder. In the 8 games in which Saquon got 13+ rec yards last year, he also got 20+ yards in all of them.

Javonte Williams U 39.5 Rush Yards (-115 Bet365)

Playable to Under 34.5 Rush Yards

Shoutout to SwishLand and the projections we will be dropping for y'all shortly. I was pumped to see that the projections were in agreement that Javonte Williams should not be listed this highly at all.

Swish has him for 31.3 yards on less than 8 attempts.

In 2024 DAL was...

29th in rush yards

26th in rush EPA per play

26th in adjusted yards before contact

6th in Pass Play %, running the 9th fewest times all season

Javonte was awful enough in his own right, failing to reach 40 yards in 12 of 18 games last season.

Then there are the O Line issues to start the season. Tyler Smith, Tyler Guyton and rookier Tyler Booker have yet to play a snap together as all have been injured at various times throughout the preseason. Book The Rook (no one actually calls him that but maybe we can get it to stick) was drafted for his pass block skills with lots of room for improvement in his run blocking.

Add on the fact that PHI is a 7.5 favorite and wiped the floor with DAL in both matchups last year, this game script is not setting up for a ton of attempts from Williams.