Josh's NFL Bets Sunday Week 8

NFL Week 8

Derrick Henry 100+ Rush Yds / Henry TD / BAL -7 (+305 DK | .5u)

James Cook O 70.5 Rush Yds (-115 DK)

James Cook 100+ Rush Yds (+280 DK | .5u)

Quinshon Judkins O 17.5 Rush Att (-106 DK)

Quinshon Judkins O 65.5 Rush Yds (-114 DK)

Quinshon Judkins 90+ Rush Yds (+280 DK | .5u)

Xavier Legette 4+ Rec (+110 DK)

Xavier Legette 5+ Rec (+234 DK | .5u)

Xavier Legette 6+ Rec (+485 DK | .5u)

Van Jefferson O 29.5 Rec yds (-114 FD)

Jordan Love O 11.5 Rush Yds (-114 FD)

Jordan Love 20+ Rush Yds (+225 FD | .5u)

Derrick Henry 100+ Rush Yds / Henry TD / BAL -7

Lamar Jackson is back. That's pretty much the analysis... I will add of course, that the Ravens have been hit hard by the sharps and there hasn't been much buy-back on the Bears. I'm not buying the Bears rushing metrics on defense, currently 6th in EPA vs the rush. 4 of their 6 opponents so far have been bottom 10 rushing offenses. This SGP is predicated on game script so I'm down to lean into it for half a unit.

James Cook O 70.5 Rush Yds / 100+

The SwishLand model likes James Cook to the tune of 113 rushing yards on 20 attempts in this one. That's good enough for me when you add in the game context. Coming off a bye following 2 straight losses, I expect the Bills to punish the Panthers, who are highly overrated when you factor in their schedule. This is another spot the sharps have hit hard in favor of Buffalo and it's a good opportunity for the Bills to feed Cook and make up for the 100+ yards alt prop we missed vs. ATL by 17 yards.

Quinshon Judkins O 17.5 Rush Att / O 65.5 Rush Yds / 90+

I think we're on the opposite page of the market in this one which is what we strive for, here on LYB (and what we should all be striving for when betting or trading stocks, etc.). Sharps are on CLE here when you look at difficulty of schedule up to this point. They're not buying the cupcake squads the Pats have beaten outside of Buffalo. So, game script is more in favor of Cleveland running the ball. Then you have the fact that the Browns want to run the ball as much as possible anyway. Let's lean into the fact that Kevin Stefanski just doubled down on that notion in the media throughout this past week.

Xavier Legette 4+ Rec / 5+ Rec / 6+ Rec

I think Legette is in for another bevy of targets following his 11 targets last week. Andy Dalton is officially in at QB and that looks really good for Legette after last week. 5 of his 11 targets vs the Jets came on 3 drives with Andy Dalton at QB. I expect the Panthers to play from behind in this one, but I do think Dalton will continue to show he's a better NFL quarterback than Bryce Young and provide more, competent offense than Young (bold prediction, I know). Even when Bryce was out there, Legette saw 7.5 receptions per game in his first 2 before getting hurt and slowly working his way back into his normal snap share. After last week, he's clearly back to that.

Van Jefferson O 29.5 Rec Yds (-114 FD)

Jefferson caught all 4 of his targets last week for 41 yards, cashing his ladder to 40+ for us. Despite the seemingly low target share, he led the receiving room in snap share even after missing a drive due to a stinger. The Titans should be down by a lot and early vs the league's number one offense in the Colts. That bodes well for more pass attempts for Cam Ward. It also helps that new head coach Mike McCoy said he plans to take the training wheels off his young QB, so we should expect some more throws.

Jordan Love O 11.5 Rush Yds / 20+

We cannot stand idly by any longer while Jordan Love continues to rack up 20+ yard games. SwishLand projections have been telling us to bet this every week, staying roughly 4-5 yards higher than his market props lines. This should be a bruiser of a game between PIT and GB and if Tomlin was being truthful when he said he plans to focus on stopping the run this week, Love could be in for a few more passing plays and rollouts.