Josh's NFL Bets Sunday Week 5
Sunday Week 5
Xavier Worthy O 59.5 Rec Yds (-110 FD)
Xavier Worthy 80+ Rec Yds (+205 FD | .5u)
Xavier Worthy 90+ Rec Yds (+300 FD | .3u)
Xavier Worthy 100+ Rec Yds (+428 | .3u)
Josh Allen O 29.5 Rush Yds (-111 DK)
Alvin Kamara O 81.5 Rush + Rec Yds (-115 DK)
George Pickens O 5.5 Rec (+115 DK)
CJ Stroud O 14.5 Rush Yds (-114 FD)
Saquon Barkley 4+ Rec (+142 FD | .5u)
Saquon Barkely O 16.5 Rec Yds (-114 FD)
Quinshon Judkins O 2.5 Rec (+120 MGM)
Tony Pollard U 65.5 Rush Yds (-118 CZR)
Xavier Worthy O 59.5 Rec Yds (-110 FD)
We're going in on Worthy this week. He has a favorable matchup against the Jaguars in what should be a balanced game script with Kansas City just slightly favored. The intel points to him being the centerpiece of the passing offense moving forward, and he already owns the second-highest target rate among NFL wideouts. The Chiefs appear ready to deploy him in a role reminiscent of 2020 Tyreek Hill, giving him explosive upside in both volume and big plays. Projections line him up for nearly 7.5 targets, close to 5 catches, and about 60 yards, with some bonus gadget rushing work. I'm adding the ladders with the likelihood that he catches at least one ball over 30 yards. Pat Mahomes air yards and deep ball attempts go up from basically non-existent to 4 per game with Worthy on the field.
Josh Allen O 29.5 Rush Yds (-111 DK)
Playable to 34.5 Rush Yds
Allen projects for a normal passing volume against New England, but Buffalo’s recent game plans have capped him under 28 attempts in three straight games. Instead, the team has leaned on designed runs, and Allen remains dangerous with his legs, projected for about 8 carries and 41 rushing yards. I like a neutral game script for much of this divisional matchup, helping keep Allen's legs as an option as opposed to when they blow teams out and keep him on the shelf to avoid injuries.
Alvin Kamara O 81.5 Rush + Rec Yds (-115 DK)
Playable to 86.5 Rush + Rec Yds
Kamara should be heavily featured in the Saints’ attack against the Giants in what profiles as a close game. He brings dual-threat stability, with projections of around 14.5 carries for 63 yards and 4 targets for over 20 receiving yards. The rushing prop looks fairly priced, but New Orleans gets a boost against a Giants defense ranked dead last against the run after getting shredded by Chargers rookie Omarion Hampton last week. On the receiving side, the edge is clearer, as Kamara remains a steady part of the passing design when games stay competitive. I would also consider his O 3.5 Rec for plus-money odds.
George Pickens O 5.5 Rec (+115 DK)
Playable to -110
Pickens has 9+ targets in his last 3 games after starting off slowly with just 4 in his opener with Dallas. CeeDee Lamb is still a week away from returning so its Pickens' wide receiver room for one more week. The Jets are atrocious against the pass, ranking 30th in Defensive pass EPA and bottom 10 in pressure percentage. I like the yards for Pickens, but the plus-money on the receptions is more appealing.
CJ Stroud O 14.5 Rush Yds (-114 FD)
Playable to 17.5 Rush Yds
The SwishLand Intel is telling us that the Texans want to use Stroud's legs whenever possible this season. he's recorded 4+ rush attempts in all 4 games this year, going over his yards in all but last week's shutout over the Titans. With the game in hand early vs Tennessee, Stroud didn't need to assume the risk of injury by running too often. This week against the Ravens, the Texans need him to gain every yard he can muster, regardless of who plays QB for Baltimore.
Saquon Barkely O 16.5 Rec Yds (-114 FD)
Playable to 19.5 Rec Yds
Barkley should see continued involvement as a pass-catcher against Denver, complementing his high-volume rushing role. The Eagles have schemed him for about 4 targets per game and DEN is not easy to exploit on the outside against its top-tier corners. We've been targeting Saquon's receptions all season as 2.5 was fairly priced at about -115 odds. Now that it's about -150 for him to get 3 receptions, the edge shifts to the receiving yards.
Quinshon Judkins O 2.5 Rec (+120 MGM)
Playable to -115
Judkins is a stud and that's really all we need to know about betting his overs. That said, we've got a new QB behind center and its rookie 3rd-round pick Dillon Gabriel. We don't expect him to receive the same freedom to run the offense as veteran Joe Flacco had, so expect a lot of dump offs to TEs and RBs this game, in addition to a few Gabriel rush attempts. Judkins has been involved in the pass game all season, even before he got the nod as the clear-cut RB1 in Cleveland. He's got 3+ targets in 2 of his 3 games played so far, including 4 targets and 4 receptions vs DET last week.
Tony Pollard U 65.5 Rush Yds (-118 CZR)
Playable to 61.5 Rush Yds
I'm tailing the SwishLand Intel on this one. The news out of Tennessee is that Tyjae Spears is expected to dip into Pollard's rush attempts this week against the Cardinals. It's not like a high volume of attempts has mattered much this season for Pollard, as he's failed to to record 65-or-more rushing yards in 3 of 4 games, despite averaging 17 carries per game. Arizona, meanwhile, has a much-improved rush defense this year, currently ranked 6th in defensive Rush EPA.
