Josh's MNF Bets Week 6

MNF Bets Week 6

Jacory Croskey-Merritt O 69.5 Rush Yds (+100 FD)

Jacory Croskey-Merritt 90+ Rush Yds (+225 FD | .5u)

Jacory Croskey-Merritt

Everything about this matchup is lining up for a big day for Bill Croskey-Merritt on Monday night. Starting with the fact that SwishLand Intel reported the Commanders' coaching staff said it expects him to get 20+ touches moving forward. Then we can look at the game script:

• Washington’s offense ranks 7th in yards/play (6.0); Chicago’s defense sits 32nd in yards/play allowed (6.7)

• Washington owns the league-best rushing success rate (51.1%), while Chicago allows a league-worst rushing success rate (52.3%).

• On early downs the Bears are allowing a league-high 7.4 yards/play, while Washington averages 6.4 yards/play on 1st/2nd down (3rd). That screams script control via the run.

All of that is to say: Washington should own the clock in this game, putting together long drives made up of predominantly run plays.

Then there are a few injuries for Washington. Backup RB Chris Rodriguez didn't practice all week and his coaches even said he would've missed this week's game if it were on Sunday. Not promising for his availability on Monday night. WR Terry McLaurin is already listed out, while Deebo Samuel and Noah Brown are both currently game-time decisions. So, the pass game is going to be hindered and the RB most likely to steal Croskey-Merritt's touches will be, at best, limited.

Lastly, there's the fact that Croskey-Merritt is wildly explosive. He's top-10 in explosive runs (10+), first-down/TD rate on carries, and success rate — and he just led the room in touches and snaps last week. Chicago is allowing 6.1 YPC to RBs (league-high) plus 18.6 rushing FPPG (30th) and 12.3 receiving FPPG (28th) to backfields.

Let's have a day!