Josh's MNF Bets Week 4
MNF Bets Week 4
Breece Hall O 57.5 Rush Yds (-115 BetMGM)
Tua Tagovailoa U 236.5 Pass Yds (-114 FD)
Ollie Gordon TD (+320 FD | .5u)
JK Dobbins O 61.5 Rush Yds (-115 BetMGM)
Breece Hall O 57.5 Rush Yds (-115 BetMGM)
Playable to 62.5 Rush Yds
Breece went through a down-tick in his usage the last two weeks as the Jets played from behind and, probably more importantly, Justin Fields was missing last week. Fields opens everything up for the Jets run game, including for his RBs. Our path to success here can be predicated on Miami’s pitiful run defense, which allows 4.5 YPC allowed to RBs and remains bottom-8 in defensive rushing success rate vs both RB run plays and pass plays. I like the receiving for Hall as well, but with Fields back, I prefer the rushing yards over everything as I expect the Jets to get back to a super heavy run script.
Tua Tagovailoa U 236.5 Pass Yds (-114 FD)
Playable to 230.5 Pass Yards
Tua has been anything but on the same page as his top WR targets, Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle. RB De'Von Achane remains the most-targeted player and despite his exceptional pass-catching skills, he's still a running back. It's never a good sign when your RB is your top receiver. He managed to go over this number vs the Patriots' suspect pass defense, but was woefully under in his other two games this year. The Jets' pass defense also leaves plenty to be desired, but I see them running clock and owning time of possession, limiting Tua's opportunities in general.
SwishLand Projection: 21/31, 217 Pass Yds
Ollie Gordon TD (+320 FD | .5u)
Rookie RB Ollie Gordon II has quietly out-touched De'Von Achane 3–1 inside the 10-yard line and owns every single carry inside the 5-yard line. I have no reason not to believe he's going to continue hoarding the goal-line carries, I'll take the odds on this one. I'm well aware that the Dolphin's putrid offense limits goal-line carries for every RB in Miami so the 3-1 odds are fair, but let's ride for a half a U.
JK Dobbins O 61.5 Rush Yds (-115 BetMGM)
Playable to 66.5 Rush Yds
Dobbins has assumed command of the RB1 role in Denver and if the last 2 games are any indication of what's to come, that ain't changing any time soon. Over the last 2 games, rookie RB RJ Harvey has 7 total carries for 10 total rush yards. Dobbins, meanwhile, has 25 totes for 159 rush yards in that same time span. SwishLand has JK for 14 carries in this game against a CIN defense that remains bottom 5 in rush defense this season after being the worst rush defense in the league last season. I'm backing little JK and his 5.6 yards per carry so far.
