Josh's MNF Bets Week 3
MNF Bets
Deandre Hopkins O 12.5 Yards Long Rec (-125 FD | 1.25u)
Mark Andrews U 3.5 Rec (-138 FD | 1.4u)
Jahmyr Gibbs O 23.5 Rec Yds (-114 FD)
Jared Goff O 1.5 Pass TDs (-110 FD)
Deandre Hopkins O 12.5 Yards Long Rec (-125 FD | 1.25u)
Playable to 17.5
SwishLand projections like him for 3 tgt / 3 rec / 45 rec yds. If you want to just take the yards and not mess with the long rec, they're at 18.5 total in some spots. But it makes the most sense to me to just take the long rec and be done with it because this man is not running routes shorter than 12 yards anyway.
In 2 games he has 4 targets, 4 catches, and 259 air yards on his targets!! That's insane, to be super clear. He has 37% of the air yards for the Ravens and again, he's only been targeted 4 times. Air yards measure the distance a football travels through the air on a pass, from the line of scrimmage to the exact point where the ball is caught or hits the ground, regardless of whether the pass was complete or incomplete. So Lamar threw the ball in the air for a total of 259 yards on 4 passes = ~65 air yards per pass to Hopkins.
Then there's the matchup. DET's defense is a pass funnel in that it sells out to stop the run, leaving itself vulnerable top the pass because its CBs are constantly on an isalnd. However, they are funneling passes to the outside by leaving safeties in the middle of the field to help TE fly routes down the seams and deep crossing routes. Look for BAL to set up the deep ball to Hopkins by taking what the defense gives them at first, and then taking a few shots deep.
Mark Andrews U 3.5 Rec (-138 FD | 1.4u)
Playable to -160
Consider me firmly on the "Mark Andrews is washed" bandwagon. This line is now at 34.5 rec yards and 3.5 rec, despite the fact that Andrews has yet to be targeted 4 times this season. Then there's the matchup... read everything I wrote above about Hopkins and you'll know why TE Mark Andrews, who runs the majority of his routes near the middle of the field, is in a tougher spot than normal this week.
DET limits TEs to the 4th fewest receptions (3 per game) and that's coming off a year in 2024 where they limited TEs to the 3rd fewest receptions + yards.
Jahmyr Gibbs O 23.5 Rec Yds (-114 FD)
Playable to 25.5
Good matchup as BAL is giving up the 3rd most rec yards and receptions to RBs this year. That's coming off of last year where they allowed the 4th most to the position. Their pressure forces quick throws and fails to account for the RB out of the backfield on pass plays.
Don't worry about Gibbs' off-week in the pass game last week (even though he still had 3 rec on 3 tgt). That was a blowout, which is why last week I added the rushing to his prop.
Jared Goff O 1.5 Pass TDs (-110 FD)
Playable to -125
I don't have an edge on the yards, completions, or attempts. But I still like him to have to score through the air since BAL has such a strong push up front on defense even without their massive DT Nnamdi Madubuike who's out.
