Week 5 Thursday Night Football Best Bets

Nate's TNF Bets Week 5 

NFL Bets
October 01, 2025•2 min read

TNF Bets Week 5

Davante Adams o55.5 Rec Yds (-113 DK)

Davante Adams 60+ Rec Yds (+105)

Kyren Williams o67.5 Rush Yds (-114 FD)

Kyren Williams o16.5 Rush ATT (-114 FD)

Special Teams Props: o1.5 FGM 2H (-105 DK)

Kyren Williams O 67.5 Rush Yds (-114 FanDuel)

Playable to 69.5 Rush Yds

The Rams might've been looking ahead to Thursday's key divisional matchup by giving Kyren a smaller workload Sunday against the Colts. Even with Blake Corum taking about 30% of the snaps in their first three games, Kyren averaged 18.3 carries for 75.3 YPG in tough matchups (HOU, TEN, PHI). Now he's facing a 49ers DL that is reeling without Nick Bosa and just got trucked by Travis Etienne and the Jags. Kyren had success against a better 49ers DL last year (26.5 carries for 98.5 YPG in 2 meetings) and he's been slightly more efficient to open this season.

Davante Adams O 55.5 Rec Yds (-113 DraftKings)

Playable to 57.5 Rush Yds

Puka Nacua has lit the league on fire through the first four weeks and the 49ers are going to have to shade their zone in his direction. Adams is still killing it as a deep threat (50.4% Air Yards Share, 15.8 Yards Per Reception) with Stafford producing Money Throws down the field. If the Niners go man coverage, Adams will either get struggling CB Renardo Green, who is dealing with a neck injury, or his backup, 7th-rounder Chase Lucas. The Niners aren't getting pressure without Bosa and that allows Adams time to work. He's also shredded Kyle Shanahan's Niners to the tune of 9.2 catches for 126.6 yards per game in five career meetings.

Special Teams Prop O 1.5 FGM 2nd Half (-105 DraftKings)

Playable to -115

A close game in the second half would almost assure this bet and we usually predict close games when division foes meet on a short week. These teams have played four straight one-score games and the last matchup ended, 12-6, with six field goals and zero touchdowns. The Niners have no rushing TDs this season and could be struggling on offense. The Rams ranked 25th in TD% in the red zone last year and are only slightly better this season at 50% (21st). The Niners defense ranks 10th in limited RZ TD conversions. Both teams should move the ball well enough to get into striking distance, but I'm fading their ability to consistently score TDs.

betslybland your betssports bettingnfl bettingnflNate WeitzerTNFThursday Night Football
With 10+ years covering the NFL and NBA for The Boston Globe and ESPN, Nate brings a journalist’s depth of knowledge and an analyst’s precision to the betting world. For the past eight years, he’s been a senior NFL handicapper for TheLines.com, where his sharp reads on sides, totals, and player props have built him a loyal following. Nate’s success starts with his early market entry, identifying soft lines before the public and the books fully adjust, locking in value where others hesitate. He has a keen eye for under-the-radar player prop lines, recognizing inefficiencies days before game day. Like the most successful NFL bettors, Nate blends deep statistical modeling with an unmatched ability to interpret coach interviews, injury reports, and subtle scheme changes that can swing a game — or a bet. If you want disciplined, data-driven bets with the kind of detail only a seasoned pro can provide, Nate Weitzer is exactly who you want in your corner this NFL season.

Nate Weitzer

With 10+ years covering the NFL and NBA for The Boston Globe and ESPN, Nate brings a journalist’s depth of knowledge and an analyst’s precision to the betting world. For the past eight years, he’s been a senior NFL handicapper for TheLines.com, where his sharp reads on sides, totals, and player props have built him a loyal following. Nate’s success starts with his early market entry, identifying soft lines before the public and the books fully adjust, locking in value where others hesitate. He has a keen eye for under-the-radar player prop lines, recognizing inefficiencies days before game day. Like the most successful NFL bettors, Nate blends deep statistical modeling with an unmatched ability to interpret coach interviews, injury reports, and subtle scheme changes that can swing a game — or a bet. If you want disciplined, data-driven bets with the kind of detail only a seasoned pro can provide, Nate Weitzer is exactly who you want in your corner this NFL season.

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